Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 21st, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
Quiet night in the NHL yesterday with just the two games, and no tips.
Both favourites won in overwhelming fashion.
It’s Saturady. The usual busy schedule. A big day of sports as per usual. Soccer action early on, then two NFL games. Then we’ve got the usual round of NBA, NHL etc plus UFC 283 later.
Gotta love it.
Let’s get into todays NHL games. Quick warning that I’ve been up all night due to a work related issue and am bloody shattered. Going to have to squeeze in a quick nap somewhere. So hopefully no mistakes in here or anything and I’ve still did my due dilligence, but just a heads up in regard to typos and shortened write-ups.
Sabres vs Ducks:
Buffalo strong favourites but would have to take them on the handicap. One win in regulation in 2023 doesn’t give me any confidence. But with their defensive metrics I can’t see betting the other side.
Flames vs Lightning:
Calgary come in off the back of a couple of losses. Tampa will look to bounce back after that Oilers loss. Not a big bounce back team this year. Their defensive metrics aren’t overwhelming. I think they might squeak the win here but not enough to back it.
Over is tempting. Again not enough for me to back it but it won’t surprise me if both teams put up at least 3. Seems probable.
Panthers vs Wild:
Panthers come in on a decent run. Wild had a winning streak snapped in Carolina. Panthers goalies letting them down a bit at the moment. Alex Lyon might be in tonight which is a bit of a question mark. Either way don’t feel great about the Panthers goaltending ATM although I think their offense can counter balance any Wild attack.
Very close to a play on the Panthers here I gotta say. It’s just the goalies situation on both sides. I think if Fleury was in net it’d be a play.
Red Wings vs Flyers:
Wings coming in off the road win oevr the Knights. Flyers had that big loss to the Blackhawks.
Both offenses performing well over the last 10. Wings performing above expectation but FLyers on point.
SCGF and SCGA I’d like to see a tad higher for both teams, and I’m concerned with the Flyers offense against the Bruins and Blackhawks, but I think they should be good to go here.
Over 6 incl OT/So if Ersson NOT in net
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/21 9:39:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jackets vs Sharks:
Eh. The only real separator between these teams is goals scored. Blue Jackets have to get going. No bet here.
Canadiens vs Leafs:
Montreal playing better lately but had the big loss to Florida. Toronto got rolling with a good win over the Jets.
These games are always tricky because regardless of the metrics etc, the two teams always play above themselves. After some decent results, Montreal will fancy their chances of competing here.
If you go by the metrics, Leafs should probably stroll this game. If it was against any other team I’d probably do Leafs -1.5 but with Monteal, I don’t like it. Not a fan of the over either with Habs offense and Leafs defensive metrics.
Senators vs Jets:
Sens struggling hard and return home hoping to get things going. Jets now lost two in a row on this east coast trip and will be looking to redeem themselves.
The concern is the Sens should be scoring more, and this could be a good game for them with the Jets leaking in goals their last two. A sneaky play on the over 6 isn’t too bad here but there’s nothing really standing out.
Islanders vs Hurricanes:
Canes given the bad news that Pacioretty is going to be out. 2nd Achilles tear. Brutal. Not really a season ending loss for the Canes of course although he had contributed 3 goals in his comeback so it deffo hurts.
The Islanders offense still can’t really get going. Unless Carolina overlook this game, they should be able to take it. But I am concerned about their recent road form.
This is one I am really on the fence about and very close to a Canes bet but can’t quite bring myself to do so.
Stars vs Coyotes:
Stars should win and the question is if they can cover the handicap? They had that stunning win over the kids.
Looking at the metrics a bit concerned about the Stars offense, especially a fairly low SCGF/60. Dallas are beasts when it comes to the empty net metrics so a good sign if it’s a 1 score game. That’s enough to make me go with it.
Stars -1.5 if Oettinger in net
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/21 9:39:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blues vs Blackhawks:
As long as the Blackhawks offense keeps it up, this one should go over.
They are playing well and good for a few goals a game. Should be able to get them in against the Blues who have a GA/60 of 3.17 and xGA/60 of 3.34 last ten. SCGF/SCGA could be a bit higher.
These two had a quiet game end of December but the Hawks offense is flowing and should be nice and competitive.
Mrazek in net and I mean he’s played a bit better last two games but it’s still Mrazek.
Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/21 9:39:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Predators vs Kings:
Books have this as a flip. Preds coming in off that Blues loss and the Kings two losses in a row.
I give the slight edge to the Preds but not enough. Their defensive metrics are brutal.
Kraken vs Avs:
Nothing for this one. Avs looking good and almost ready to trust them. But Kraken are a tough team. B2B for Avs too yeah no play.
Canucks vs Oilers:
I see no reason not to take the Oilers here other than “its Edmonton”. If they pull off one of their infamous not showing up games then so be it. But the Canucks defensive metrics are brutal, the Oilers offensive metrics are excellent, and the Canucks are on a B2B.
Boudreau – the writing is on the wall. Never a fan of really backing a game involving Jack Campbell of course but have to think they can outscore them.
Oilers in Regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/21 9:39:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Golden Knights vs Capitals:
Nothing here.
Minnesota -105
I’m waiting to see if this can hit even money or plus money for the Wild. I do have a half unit play on the Wild at the -105. Will strike again if money continues to come in on Florida. The Florida home record and recent performances have me a bit concerned. But I’m not as bullish on the Panthers just yet. So Florida opens -115 at home. Essentially that says these are two even teams. And nothing halfway thru the season indicates that. Can Florida eventually get there? Sure. But they’re still a below .500 team currently with a lot of the same issues that have plagued them most the season.
Gustavsson confirmed already for the Wild was what clinched the play for me. He’s been far better than Fleury this season, albeit in a smaller sample size having 10 fewer starts. Over his last 7 games he’s 5-2. 1.85 GAA, .934 sv%, and the wild are only allowing 28.2 shots against during that span of games. These are in line with his season stats and January as well.
I don’t know what I’m getting in net from the Panthers. Knight was placed on IR back on the 10th and was said to be day to day. Just 5 games since December 6th. Has given up three or more goals in all 5, with a 1-4 record and an .854 sv %. Bobrovsky left 2 minutes into the Montreal game without facing a shot. The other option would then be Lyon which would be a huge mismatch in favor of the Wild. If it is Bobrovsky, 4-2-1 in January. However, GAA of 3.28 and sv % .898.
Florida has a great home ice GF vs GA per game, which I think is why they are being priced the way they are. It would be wrong of me not to point it out. Third in the league GF/GP at home with 3.75, to go with 3.05 GA/GP. Overall they operate at a negative, showing most of their struggles have been on the road. The Wild drop below 3 GF on the road placing them at 23rd. 5th in Goals against on the road to balance it out. This will come down to whether you think the Wild can contain the Panthers potent offense.
The Florida home stat had me concerned so I looked at their actual game results. More specifically the strength of opponent they’ve faced in their last 10 home games. This takes us all the way back to November 26th and is half of what they’ve played on home ice. From 11-26 forward :
Loss to St. Louis
Win Detroit
Loss to Seattle ( Fla scored 2 goals)
Win Columbus
Loss to Pittsburgh ( scored 2 goals)
Loss to New Jersey (scored 2 goals)
Win Montreal
Loss to New York Rangers (scored 3 goals)
Win Arizona
Win Vancouver
The wins have been Detroit, Columbus, Montreal, Arizona, and Vancouver. As you’re seeing, they’re still losing to the top teams and beating up the absolute bottom level teams in the league. The high powered offense is also being held in check vs the higher quality opponents.
Floridas playing with confidence. It also has the talent to light it up on any given night vs anybody. The offense has scored 18 goals over its last four games. At the same time Florida still isn’t beating many top level teams. Even this month, which has by far been their best month record wise the entire season. Aside from a 5-4 win over the Avs, name another impressive win vs a top opponent in January. Florida can win this game vs the Wild. They just shouldn’t be getting priced as if they are an equal team to the Wild, especially with the potential goaltender issues.
I like the value I’m getting on the Wild here.
Minnesota -105 (and hopefully even better odds before puck drop)
I get the hesitation with Toronto, but Montreal might be trying to go full tank for Bedard, after putting Caufield on the shelf for the rest of the season. I think we’ll see a lot of -350 inflated prices vs the rest of the league going forward. Be interesting to see if the rest of the roster plays along. Especially in matchups like this where records never seemed to matter and they give certain clubs fits.