Written by Scott on Monday, January 22nd, 2018
We had 2 tips yesterday and we went 1-1
I liked over in the Flyers vs Capitals game and this didn’t come through for me when the Flyers won 2-1 in OT. Graeme didn’t like this tip and I should have listened. But I still have faith in the Caps offense and with the way the Flyers have been playing I liked the over.
We had the Jets to win in regulation against the Canucks and this was a close as it gets. The Jets won 1-0. They scored half way through the 1st period and that was all of the scoring for this game.
6 games for us today. We could only come up with one tip. We have two unit bets though.
Senators vs Wild Betting Tips:
The Sens are coming into this game on a 2 game losing skid. They are 4-5-1 over their last 10 games.
The Wild have been a great home team. They have picked up points in 16 of their last 17 games when at home. They are riding a 6 game point streak in Minnesota.
They last played in December and it was the Wild winning 6-4. With their success at home I have to back the Wild in this game.
Wild in regulation
Canada: 1.88 Odds at 888 Sports
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.88 Odds at 888 Sports
(Odds correct as of 2018/01/22 10:31:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Unit/Confidence Betting Tips:
Wild in regulation – 1u
Avalanche vs Leafs – Avalanche Win .5u
With the Avs on a 9 game win streak we have to at least put a half unit on them. And for the odds it really is a no brainer
(We are experimenting with adding unit/confidence to our betting tips. For more details see this post.)
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
KHL Betting Tips (20-14, +2.96u): 0.5u on Sibir -1.5.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Bovada
GT Bets
New to this forum. I am liking the Lightning -1.5, Wild -1.5, Flames -1.5, Islanders ML tonight. Would appreciate your inputs.
Also likes Wild and Flames tonight.
parlay with Wild, Flames & Avs all ML pays 4.2:1 on my site
Hi Inayat,
It’s your choice and If you really like the Wild and Flames at -1.5 go for it. Personally if I bet on them, I would pick them in Regulation ( Moneyline) instead. The probability of winning is higher and you’re covered in case the game goes to Overtime. As far as the Lightening at -1.5, It’s really risky if they play their backup goalie Domingue. This game is hard to call. At least wait until TB announces their starting goalie. Personally, I would stay away from this one. Good luck!
Hey Syd. Thank you for your input. I think you make valid points here. I was just thinking that Tampa May come out strong and with intensity since the coach said the team doesn’t know how to play hockey anymore. You are right though. I will wait until the goalies are confirmed. Thanks again for your input
You’re very welcome:)
Just like to add that before you decide on -1.5 for TB, it’s a good idea to factor in that both teams are on losing streaks right now. TB with 3 and Hawks with 2 losses and they’re record in their last 10 gms, TB 4-5-1 and Hawks 5-4-1 suggests this could be a tight game and winning by a 2 goal margin will be difficult.
Hockey is very difficult to predict and 2 goal margins even more difficult to predict. Money line or regulation bets are much less risky.
Thank you for your input. I am probably going to put a very small wager (like $20 or something) just for fun. After all, it is gambling so you never know. Lol. I agree with what you have said though.
If you want a PL bet tonight the Islanders score a lot of goals and are playing a relatively weak team in the Coyotes. Just my 2 cents
I just don’t like the islanders on the road. Especially since I think their goalies are very weak
I can’t argue with that. However, Halak, who is in net for Isles tonight, just beat Blackhawks and has won three of his last five starts. He’s going up against Raanta who is 2-7-3
Are you looking at the empty net stats at all? When betting the puck line it’s good to look those up and check to see if you’re in your favour as they can be a big factor in the profitability of puck line bets.
Personally I rarely bet the -1.5 anymore and instead just double down on the in regulation bet if I’m that confident in a team.
I haven’t really looked at the stats to be honest. Just my gut feeling with no insight. Lol
Nothing wrong with going with the gut, but it’s best to have some stats to back up the pick. If you’re betting on the gut you’re generally betting based on emotion and then if you lose that can cause you to make erratic bets based on emotion.
Even do up a pros/con list for each pick as it can be interesting when you look at it all and it can help convince you on a pick or put you off. Always having some data to help back up your picks one way or another is good to have.
Understood. Thank you very much for the input. I really appreciate it. Just wondering if you could kindly provide me with some good sites I can look at to research the games. Once again, thank you
Graeme gave you some good advice. To get info for statistics & previews, they’re available on lots of sports sites but you can start with these: NHL, espn, TSN and oddsshark.
“Over 5.5-System” works great – have a look at the stats -> https://f1bets.blogabet dot com/ – tonight: Leafs/Avs, Hawks/Bolts, Yotes/Isles
> Pretty tough to find bets with good value. I’ll throw a unit on the Avs – this is a must try! Maybe Tampa over 2.5 team goals & a double with Wild ML/Flames ML
Do you still like the overs at 6.0 and 6.5??
Personally I never bet on a 6.5 line! 6.0 ok but 6.5? No way.
agreed
6.5 plays for the under work great if your bookie offers total goals in game. You can protect your wager with a 7 8 total.
I’ll throw up a few when I feel I won’t look stupid doing it.
I like your project JH
I am in the UK and I don’t see bookmakers offering over 6.0
Where can u find that set of odds?
For example Bet365 offers more lines – also 4.5, 6.5 and so on. I always play the 5.5 line
I might have misunderstood, but I remember a few days ago you mentioned that when bookmakers over Over 6.0 then you go for the Under 5.5. Is that right?
That’s right @jm@jmskippy:disqus
Hey Johnny just curious have you investigated historical data? 8/11 is good yes but a very very small snapshot of outcomes.
I haven’t. I just bet for myself in the past. It went good so I’ll post the picks on blogabet for the rest of the season.
You’re not adding Sens-Wild 5.5? Two back-up goalies
I think I’ll going for this doublee maybe: Wild over 2.5 team goals & Flames over 2.5 team goals. I can geht this combo @2.310
Flames Regulation win @ – 125 odds. I’ll take that as my main bet.
&
Parlay Islanders/lightning (regulation wins)
leafs over 5,5 wild ML flames ML bolts ML
Wild And Flames regulation.
Colorado, Chicago and Buffalo with 1u;
Landeskog, Hartman, Barzal and O’Reilly with 0.5u.
Well Colorado Avalanche won 10 straight games, Bernier starts tonight and he’s 8-0-0 last 8 with 1.38 GAA
ODDS are 3.20 for colorado REG. Why not give a shot
Nope. 10 will be tonight.
320$ in the pocket 😛
Cant agree more with Scott and Greame tonight. Will play NYI in regulation or live bet 1 unit or 0.5 depending on outcome of earlier plays.
Happy Monday! It was a great weekend as my Patriots are returning to the Superbowl after a nail-biter win. The betting worked out last week as well.
I have a couple of plays I really like today: Avs and Isles. Along with the Bruins the Avs are the hottest team in the league and I just can’t see why they are such huge underdogs against the Maple Leafs who are missing two of their top D-men. The Avs have been on fire and are going for their 10th straight win which will provide some great motivation while the Leafs have been spinning in circles lately. Bernier has been great and McKinnon is one of the league’s best players at the moment. Great value, take Avs any way you want to.
Isles are a little more risky because they are streaky but they are coming off a significant win against the Blackhawks and seem to be playing with more focus. I like them to carry this momentum to Phoenix and get a win inc OT or a regulation win. Yotes can be pesky and might take this to OT but I’m pretty sure Isles end up with a W here.
GLTA SDB
SDB, I still trying to find the best way to cash in on games, does it make sense to play the favorite teams as single bets and then parlay them up with other games
Bob – thank you for your question. You are not alone, we are all looking for the best way to cash in on games! Even the most experienced hockey bettors struggle for success and consistency. I think the NHL must be the most difficult sport to bet because there is so much parity between teams. For example, the other night the Coyotes thumped the St. Louis Blues who should be one of the best teams in the league. But on any night, any team can win. Most of us try to identify the teams that are trending up or down and to play them based on their recent record and considering goaltender, injuries, motivation (playoff, revenge), road vs home record and other key factors. I generally try to find the teams that I think have the best chance of winning and will either look for ML or regulation odds that are favorable. Sometimes I play over/under. I rarely play PL. If I have a high level of confidence I’ll combine two bets (rarely 3 or more–too risky) for a parlay. I rarely play prop bets like individual scorers or SOG. Most of the time I either bet on favorites or against (fade) teams that are slumping. I usually don’t chase underdogs. However, there are a couple of guys here–Lion and Magus–who do well with betting on underdogs. I just don’t feel comfortable with that approach. There are no hard and fast rules, but those are some of the things I keep in mind. Some of the members of the forum–Oliver, Arto and a few others–regularly share their thoughts on games and their betting strategies. I trust their insights and you can learn a lot from reading their posts. Of course, Scott and Graeme are very good at handicapping and offer some excellent guides on sports betting. GL SDB
Much appreciated, I was always better at sprints that long distances, time to start training for the marathon:)
Hi Bob, Treating hockey betting as a marathon and not a race is definitely the right strategy:)
Sometimes it’s hard to pace yourself. I appreciate your comments.
There are many strategies betters use, and I like to keep the # of games on one ticket to an absolute minimum. I will splurge on a 3, 4 or 5 game parley if I’m very sure of the outcome of at least half the games and have strong indication the others will go the way I want. If you watch the odds carefully, sometimes it may make sense to risk a parley, or more games on it, if the chance of an upset and a great payoff, is quite possible. I’ve seen enough odds set at exactly the current day’s home/away stats, that it makes sense to do deeper research and spot those opportunities, as the odds makers are often not including up to the minute data on injuries or some other factors, as hard as they try, and has much as the “line” can move because of better action. Some betters rely on hunting opportunities for bigger payouts on upset results. I think it pays off in the long run to follow at least two sports (such as NHL and NBA) for deep research, to find that deeper-level info and get the edge. I like to do that myself, as much as see what pro cappers say. Pro handicappers disagree all the time, and I swear that a lot of them are superficial researchers, not worth a dime’s support. I bet a parley today including multiple sports, four games, and three of them are low odds because the results are almost “a lock”. Hey, it’s better than the stock market when you can have a run at this every day of the year!
I appreciate your comments, I wish that I was more knowledgeable about basketball, I find hockey more manageable. I just need to pace myself and make smarter bets.
Do you like tampa? Do you think their defense and glass can handle the bolts offensive?
Knights and Jets cashed me in pretty well yesterday, whilst ducks failed miserably but I didn’t place anything substantial on them. On to today.
POTD- Colorado Avalanche ML/Reg (75%/70%) – I can’t believe the odds we are getting here. Avalanche is at a price of a very heavy underdog. They’ve just won 9 straight?! I’ll take it! Leafs have hardly been that impressive winning just 3 of their last 10. They’re cold and struggling to get anything going. For gods sakes, they almost lost to the Senators! Colorado has won 5 of the last 7 meetings in Toronto and right now are the hottest team in the league form wise. Bernier has been a wall allowing 2 goals or less in 8 of Colorado’s 9 game winning streak. The Rantanen MacKinnon Landeskog line has been as effect as ever. Avs are wanting to hold their playoff spot and have plenty of motivation to get win number 10.
I also like
Wild Reg and Flames Reg. I will add reasons later if I can.
GL!
Stalock vs Condon – Better go for goals here? Or do you still trust Minnesota with Stalock?
Hi Johnny,
Condon and Stalock haven’t played since Jan 9th but Stalock GA is 2.71 vs Condon at 3.48 GA. Wild is 16-4-4 at home vs Sens at 6-10-4 on the road. Wild’s GF is 2.89 vs Sen’s GA at 3.45. These stats suggest the Wild could win in Reg with TTG o2.5.
Good luck!
I have the posted TT for Wild as 3.5 now and yet the O/U is still 5.5. I’ll take the over and Wild PL (ML is -210 and reg is -140)
Today is going to be that day where Stalock or Condon stand on their heads you’ll see
hahaha i’m sure you’re right
Stalock is a very good backup.
I got some juicy profit with
Avs -1.5
Sweet man!
Tonight tips,
Sabres win ML
Leafs win ML
Sens win ML
Hawks win ML
Islanders win ML
Good luck!
Similar plays, though I went Yotes over Islanders… surprised you are not on them with your style of playing.
It does not have to be so that I am right on that pick. Maybe you are the one who has better idea on that. Game is totally equal for both side. It is gonna be tough one but isles got me with their win against hawks.
Good luck!
I swear to god I will never understand your picks. Please if you could explain some of them to me sometime…. WHY WOULD YOU CHOOSE SABRES OR SENS ? And I thought you liked dogs? I jumped all over Avs and yet you go for the favourite in that one. Do you just pick the opposite of everything I do ?
I have picked Sabres because of the bad home games performances by Calgary. They are kinda under stress because of home phobia. On the other hand more relax and nothing to lose Sabres. They are very good against stessed teams. Check the history. Btw if game was not in Calgary then my comments on that game would be different.
Sens, It was because of the odds. Their odds on that game was 2.90 and they won %56 of these games with such odds. Check the statistic 😉 Wild’s was with 1.43 odds and they won 55% of these games. It was tough one and I did my decision on Sens.
Blackhawks, they mostly lose the games when I pick them. I should better not bet on them at all. Same goes for Toronto.
Anyway mate, I just woke up and time is 7.43 right now. Soon I ll be on the way of my job after I take kids to school and Kindergarten. I will try to add my comments if it is not too late and I am on my sleep time 🙂
Have a nice day everyone!
Thanks for the reply Lion. I just wanted to understand your thinking.
Condon (OTT) and Johnson (BUF) are confirmed. Now I’m thininkg about this double: Wild over 2.5 team goals & Flames over 2.5 team goals. Both teams could score 3 goals easily. I can geht this combo @2.310
can’t get it 😐
Any thought on bolts and hawks OVER?
Bolts is due to a win with score like 5 – 2 or 5- 1
My parlay tonight
Tor ml + min r + min o + nj ml + tp ml 0.2 unit
Does anyone have an idea of what teams could be tanking from here on ?
Another question might be: Which teams to fade that are still valued by oddsmakers? To me that includes Kings, Blackhawks, Capitals, ‘Canes and Oilers
Hi guys 2 wins of three lastnight! Happy with that!
Tonight Two overs Chicago game and Arizona game.
Good luck to everyone!
Vasilevskiy confirmed
Like over 6 at Devils/Red Wings.
5units on this.
To WIN in reg: Colorado, Wild and Flames
no leans on sides or O/U today
Iffy on the Colorado game. I expect the Avs to win, even if Toronto puts up an effort, which I hope they do early in the first, to make sure Colorado is awake early, assuring the Avs win it. LOL
LESSON LEARNED: this season we see some teams have a multi-game slow recovery from their bye week. Perhaps they need to distance it a little more from the All-Star break which is just days from now! Just when some teams were winding up good runs of great hockey performance, they get hit with the compulsory week off, it ruins momentum and it doesn’t seem to do any of them any good in terms of how they come out of it. Will we see the same thing immediately after the All-Star break?
Does the Islanders line not seem fishy? I know they are on the road but only -125 moneyline seems awfully cheap for a high octane offense.
My first thought when I saw the line
Also, I’ve seen this song and dance by the Hawks one too many times. I swear when they are high fav’s like -175 or -200 they lose but tonight’s dogs at home and they will win. It’s crazy but I’ve seen it happen a lot.
Red wings win Reg
Avalanche win ML
Islanders win ML
Good luck everyone!
Bolts ML
Avs ML
Isles ML
Hi new in this blog ! Alot of wins in this month so i think i can help ! Im portuvuese and i follow the nhl so much on 3 and 4 am 😉 So i will just put my predictions heres, so you can guus can choose!
So my predictions are :
Devils (with draw incluiding)
Colorado (with draw incluiding)
Minnesota (reg)
Bolts (with draw incluiding)
Arizona coyotes (with draw incluiding)
Calgary and under 5.5 (with draw incluiding)
Gl everyone!
Bem vindo!
Hi everyone,
Avs +0.5 @ 1.93
Red Wings +0.5 @ 1.87
Sens ML @ 2.92
GLTA
I am also on Leafs TTU 3.5 @ 1.68 w/ 2 units.
Bernier has been a wall
Yep. And in 8 games this year, with 6 being at home, Leafs just scored more than 3 only one time. Imagine against who? Anderson, the leak.
Nothing for me. No bets until my month restarts on 25th.
I have a feeling Arizona will down NYI.
Tampa cause they need it and thinking Leaferzzz pull off a miricle and actually show up. To be safe I’ll play the under 6
Under 6 -125
Tampa ML -120
Like the yotes to get 3 goals possibly win as well alawys play well against ilzzz
2 plays going with what my gut is feeling.
Playing safe to start the week. I’ll sprinkle a little on the total goals in Avs Leafs at 7 +420 and walk with a profit on the under 6 play. This has been a cash cow for me all year BUT nothing is a lock so here’s hoping I don’t look stupid.
GL but definitely this game is going over
Any hope for my 7 at +420??
Yesssssss hope you hit the +420
Bahhh just looked, kinda thought this was a 22 OT my luck it’ll finsh 4 2
And walk with my head down not a profit. Still a great play with crazy odds on total goals in game. If you can get a feel on how game is going after 1st in my opinion it’s a solid play. Deff works better on a 6.5 under.
It’s ok we all lose. But 7 is a line I will never take on principle. Even on islanders games.
I was banking on the last 7 games for the leafs all decided by 1 goal and 5 of those going to OT. My feel was a tight game everyone was on Colorado and I liked it with the Bernier revenge factor but my gut said 22 OT so u6 I thought I was being pretty smart lol o well.
The 7g play is a live bet just in case it goes 33 OT but as you can see by today it’s never a lock. The odds are always high 3 to mid 400+ if you can wait hit at perfect time.
Love your picks and looking forward to see your Tuesday’s picks
Thx, my picks were no better than the others they just went the way I thought they should. Great site for others opinions, important to not be a follower and to dig into the game deeper than just stats. No one should ever be judged on why they made the wager or their reasons. One bad bounce, hot goalie, bad penalty all kinds of factors contribute to the outcome.
I’m hot right now and I’ll ride it till the hockey gods put me back in place lol
Cheerzzzz
Thanks man I love the words you just put together and all my respect in our journey to beat the bookie?
Do you post in other websites?
I’ve been around for a while and throw in my 2 cents here and there on a couple others. I’ve been doing this to long to post every little thing I think I know for a pat on the back lol
New York Islanders +140
Calgary Flames -145
Tampa Bay Lightning +120
Couldn’t post earlier but I like these in regulation ?
Any team is better than Zona
Any team is better than Sabres
Tampa is just the best is the best..