Written by Graeme on Sunday, January 22nd, 2023
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A 3-1 day yesterday.
Oilers and Stars delivered their regulation and handicap wins with ease. Blues & Blackhawks went over with room to spare. Only loss was the Wings/Flyers that just never got going until the third period.
Pretty darn happy looking back at my analysis from yesterday as well. Flames/Lightning put up at least 3, I said the Panthers offense can counter the Wild attack and they did so, Blue Jackets got going offensively like I expected, and I dodged a big bullet with the Leafs.
We’ve got 5 games going today so let’s get to it.
Devils vs Penguins:
The Devils had their winning run ended in OT against the Kraken, and now host the Penguins who are just coming off that back to back head to head against the Senators, where they split the games.
These two played 3 weeks ago with New Jersey coming out winners on the road. That was a nice win for the Devils and sort of helped get them back on track.
It’s interesting looking at the metrics as it shows the difference in form, and af luck. The big thing right now though is that the Devils offense are performing. They’re scoring aboe expectation by a decent amount but still have a nice high xG.
The Pens however have Jarry back which is a big return for them and a potential game changer. I do think this Devils offense may be too much for him, but you have to expect Jarry being back to give them confidence to revitalize themselves.
I assume Jarry is in net, but if not:
Devils in Regulation if Jarry NOT in net
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/22 8:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Kings:
The Blackhawks continue to roll with a big 5-3 win over the Blues. THe Kings continue to struggle and are on a 3 game losing run now. The honeymoon period for Copley is over I would say.
Blackhawks still not getting any respect from the sportsbooks. I get it. They suck. But you have an offense that is overperforming and playing with confidence, against a team who already has a high xGA and is struggling with conceding goals.
Quick is in net but what does he really have going for him? That 7 save performance against Dallas that’s about it at the moment. Looked alright yesterday.
So I am pretty conflicted here. I like a shot on the Blackhawks, but I also feel the Kings are going to have to start pushing offense first, knowing they are going to concede goals but try and score more. Much like the Panthers yesterday as an example. So that makes the over 6.5 goals line tempting.
Buuuut…either scenario, basically relies on Chicago keeping their offense going. I’d be surprised if the game went over due to like a 5-2 Kings win. So I’m going to go with the higher odds play.
Blackhawks to win incl OT/SO. And if the back to back is too much for the Hawks, or their offense starts to regress(which is 100% going to happen) then that is life.
Ontario: 2.92 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.97 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +197 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.97 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/22 8:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Sharks:
Bruins on another solid run. Now at home hosting the Sharks who have been inconsitent at best. Just coming off the Jackets loss.
Sharks main plus is they are scoring, AND it’s pretty close to the XG. And getting 5 past the Stars with their defensive metrics was impressive, especially with Oettinger in net there.
So yeah that one is a bit of a red flag for me – and the odds are pretty iffy anyway. I’m going to pass on this one.
Flyers vs Jets:
Ton’d treally see too much for this one. Fancy the Jets based on the metrics but not in regulation against a Flyers team who are getting in the results. I’m not really buying this Flyers team, and I think the Jets are going to get the job done – but the odds aren’t there for me.
Coyotes vs Knights:
Nothing for this one. Knights in regulation is the only real play and I just don’t feel like they are a team I can confidently back. By the metrics yeah it’s probably a play. But that Coyotes offense has to start performing better and I mean the Knights defensive metrics? They could make this a game.
Thanks Graeme and congrats on the big night 🎉
Devils ml – they are coming off a huge road trip and have to be filled with confidence. They know they have to do better at home so a big effort today from them. Pens are really struggling at both ends.
Bs – race to 4 and Pasta 1.5+
“A” Coachella in regulation
GLTA SDB
I saw Jarry has been confirmed just to update. Penguins probably couldn’t confirm him quick enough after his 44 save return performance vs an Ottawa team who just put 5 against DeSmith the game before. Jarry makes up for a lot of the Penguins deficiencies, and I’m intrigued to see how he performs vs the Devils here. Was personally shocked to see the Devils current home record. 12 of their 16 losses have come at home, and they are just below .500 there. You’d think they’d be eager to get to at least a winning record there. And you’d also think just having a goalie like Jarry back the Penguins would be thankful and start trying to elevate their game. Good afternoon matchup that may tell us a lot about where both teams are at, or absolutely nothing lol.
No confirmations for the Kings vs Hawks game. But I assumed Copley vs Mrazek. Quick played all but 40 seconds after Copley gave up two in less than a minute. Quick gave up 3 of his own and got hit with the loss. Kings were able to overcome the early 2 goal deficit and took the lead going into the third. I had felt Copleys record wasn’t matching his performances and the signs pointing to a regression were all there. Quick just 1 win since December 1st.
I made the Kings -150. They’re going nearly 10 percent higher currently at -230. I can’t get to pricing the Kings at 70 percent on the road. That means the Kings would be -300 at home vs the Hawks. So if the Kings are 75 percent what’s that put Boston or Carolina? 85? The value is definitely with Chicago.
The Hawks may have used up all their good fortune chasing Binnington last night. Hawks 5 goals on 18 shots yesterday. Outshot 32-18 by the Blues. Now they get to try again vs another shaky duo of goaltenders. Chicago knows all about that with Mrazek. Mrazek 3-0 in his last three starts. I think it’s just a matter of time before regression hits him in the face. However there’s so much variance to this game on the goaltending alone, and with the high price on the Kings, that only helps the Hawks value here. As long as expectations are kept to about the 40 percent max range.
Boston David Pastrnak first goal scorer +650
Nothing jumping out to me today. So I wanted to take a stab at this. Reimer 3.77 GAA over his last 9 games. Over Pastrnak’s last two games just 2 shots vs the Islanders. 0 shots vs the Rangers. Now he gets to face the Sharks on home ice. Already scored twice vs Reimer back on the 7th. I think he makes it a priority to shoot and shoot early today.
Boston to WIN puckline
Chicago reverse puckline of +1.5
Problem is the odds are about -150 for the Boston game, and the moneyline isn’t worth it, so not taking it unless it’s in a parlay. Today is riddled with back-to-backs, very cautious. Boston off 2 days rest, their look-ahead is not distracting for them, they should focus on this game with enough energy, but the motivation level will be low, regarding the team. Moneyline?
Chicago playing well, and from LA’s last 10 game stats, I think they’re in trouble and the Chicago reverse puckline makes sense at around -130. LA has been relying on the powerplay for a good portion of their goals recently, and if Chicago doesn’t take more than 3 penalties (probably won’t), they’ve got a strong chance of taking this. LA’s shooting percentage is not great and Chicago’s is adequate recently. These two teams are almost identical in terms of # of penalties taken/game, as well as overall specialty team stats.
Hey guys. Just found this site, looks really good. I like what you guys are doing! Is there a explanation anywhere for the abbreviations like xGA etc etc?
If you google “advanced metrics NHL” you can find lots of details on them
Here’s an article going deep into some: https://sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2020/05/06/advanced-hockey-statistics/
Moneypuck has a solid glossary https://moneypuck.com/glossary.htm
And NST has one too https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php
Good predicton of the Coyotes play.
Those are tough as it’s easy to look at a team and be like “they’re going to start scoring a lot more” or a lot less – but actually figuring out WHEN that will happen? If I can crack that, it would be great 🙂