Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 26th, 2023
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Sometimes you really gotta thank the sportsbooks for saving us from losing money.
I mean take that Oilers vs Blue Jackets game last night. We were priced out of anything on that one but if the odds were good, Oilers in regulation or even Oilers -1.5 were mathematically a no brainer bet.
Heck even the -2.5 was close to it actually looking at the metrics. And what happen? They don’t even won. Lose in overtime.
Sad.
My buddy Dan (big AEW fan) mentioned that the Oilers are yet to win with the reverse retro jersey this season. Always love bizarre stats like that. They are wearing it on Saturday so we’ll see if they can break that hoodoo.
I see the Tocchet honeymoon is over. That went well.
Let’s get on with Thursdays tips.
Lightning vs Bruins:
Tampa bounced back from their tough Alberta trip to beat the Wild 4-2. Boston continue to just steamroll teams. Bookies have this as a coinflip. The Bruins have won the past two games this season.
Bit of a tricky one. They are evenly matched in a lot of the advanced metrics. Goaltending is a big saver for the Bruins at the moment but Tampa are scoring well and deserve to score great.
I went into this hoping to back the Bruins, but the Tampa offense concerns me. I won’t be surprised if the Bruins get the win here, but this Tampa offense is performing very well.
Canadiens vs Red Wings:
Montreal come stumbling in. But hey we beat the Leafs – that was pretty awesome. Now we host a struggling Detroit team at a decent underdog price.
I actually don’t hate the Habs here. By the metrics I’d say it’s a bit closer to a flip and there’s some value on them. Their offense is underperforming. Their defense is still terrible though.
Red Wings have stopped being a big goalie dependent team, although Husso has did good in his last 3.
Alas – Habs have pretty much confirmed that Jake Allen is in net. If Sam was in net I think I’d take ’em. Hope Allen steps up but not gonna risk it on a returning goalie under a bit of pressure who had some torrid performances last time we saw him.
Capitals vs Penguins:
Caps come in playing horrible. Penguins – eh. Neither team really has anything going for them. It’s one of those you hope both offenses light it up and have a classic game. But the line is 6.5 and the metrics don’t lean towards that at all. With DeSmith likely in net I don’t hate it though.
Jets vs Sabres:
Winnipeg lost to the Preds to stop their two game winning streak. They return home where they have posted an excellent 17-6-0 record. Now they host Buffalo who have a beastly away record of 14-1-1.
The Sabres are coming off a big win over the Blues and have a four game winning streak going on in some high scoring affairs.
Bar a few slip-ups, the Jets have been reliable at home. Complacency always seems to be an issue with them but hopefully that Nashville loss was a slap in the face for them. Craig Anderson is projected and hasn’t been too shabby.
I feel like as long as the Jets don’t get complacent, they should be able to get the convincing win here.
Jets in regulation if Hellebuyck is in net
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/26 10:56:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Predators vs Devils:
Neither very appealing right now for this particular matchup. Would give the edge to the Devils and price it at about the same as the bookies.
Wild vs Flyers:
3 tough games for Minnesota and they come home hoping to end their losing streak. Sportsbooks expect them to do so against Philly. By the metrics – I do not agree with that at all.
But it’s still so hard to back Philly. Hart keeps getting lit up. Minnesota should be scoring more (as should Philly) and this could be the perfect matchup for them to do that. They have a brutally low SCGF/60 of 1.87 over their last 10, and that drops to 1.02 for 5 vs 5. Abysmal.
But their Corsi is starting to trend upwards in 5 vs 5 so that’s a sign they should be getting it going I think and this could be the game for them.
No bet, although I do think Philly have some value.
Avalanche vs Ducks:
Would have to be Avs -1.5. No thanks.
Flames vs Blackhawks:
As expected, the Blackhawks offense eventually regressed. Bookies have priced us out of anything for this game though. Looking at the data – eh, it’s not huge indicators that the Flames even cover 1.5 anyway let alone 2.5. Although with the Blackhawks offense regression, tis likely.
Coyotes vs Blues:
Interesting one actually. BOth teams have brutal defensive and goalie metrics. Offense over the last 10 is interesting though. Coyotes xGF/60 of 2.76, GF/60 of 1.69. Blues xGF/60 of 2.38, GF/60 of 3.2.
Blues drastically overperforming, Coyotes drastically underperforming. Is this the game where it all comes to a head?
I think so. The only concern is that Krug and Tarasenko have both returned. It can take time for teams to adjust but that might be the one thing the team needs to get going. Plus if the Blues want to keep their playoff hopes alive, these next few games before the all star break is where they need to wake the F up.
But while I do have that concern over those returns – I think we’re getting enough value on Arizona.
Coyotes incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.40 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +140 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.40 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/26 10:56:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
A very high risk card. Leans I see are
1) WIN for New Jersey in regulation,
2) the OVER with St. Louis and
3) Philly at the reverse puckline of +1.5.
Bruins game should be great hockey but I can’t see where to bet it. Detroit’s offense is very unreliable even against a Habs team with a lot of players out injured I don’t feel tempted, it’s scrimmage hockey with those teams. Caps and Pens are two teams I refuse to bet on (even though the Caps this year are a little more reliable than usual, just not tonight folks). Buffalo/Jets should gravitate right to the 5 or 6 goal mark but then, I have no idea. Buffalo’s offense really impresses me this year, but Winnipeg can shut teams down, so no idea there. Colorado’s motivation level tonight will be minimal, always a dangerous thing with them, so I’m off it. Avs have lost to Chicago and Vancouver recently, they’re willing to take a night off. Calgary’s offense is unreliable and they often have little electricity, and Chicago’s playing better recently, so no idea there either. Philly is playing better recently and Minnesota’s offense is weak to mediocre, so I don’t see a power win for the Wild; the Under option is undermined by the two teams taking more penalties recently, Philly being more disciplined in general in the last 10.
Though not officially confirmed yet I was seeing Comrie was likely for Buffalo. Sucks I’m at work as I’m sure I’d fire something on the Jets with more time to research.
Got down on New Jersey -125 when it opened. Currently at NJ -135 and I still see value in it. I think I’m on an island here but I’m not understanding this line. I priced NJ -165 here on the road. Nashville has played a solid month of hockey in January. They have a good home record and solid goaltending as well. But in my power rankings I’m not getting there. I have the Devils as a top 5 team and Nashville somewhere around 20th in the league.
Nashville is 28th in GF/GP at home. As far as opponents they’ve beat in January, the most recent win 2-1 over the Jets is prolly their best win. The Canes one back on the 5th is quite misleading. That’s the game the Canes outshot them 67 to 25 and the advanced metrics for Carolina were just as lopsided. A split with Montreal. Losses to the Sabres and Blues.
The effort should at least be there as I think this is the Preds last game until February 7th. So we’ll see if it’s full effort or if the Preds have already checked out. Devils also have a game vs the Stars tomorrow, hopefully not a look ahead spot for them.
Montreal +135
Worth a shot on the price
I’m gonna try and search for a goal scorer but may not have time to. If so will post.
NJ -125
Montreal +135 half unit
Winnipeg Nikolaj Ehlers to score +135 half unit.
Kinda rushing this one hence the half unit. Also quite a few Jets to pick from that could score tonight. Wheeler and Perfetti could if they start shooting the puck more, but just haven’t been recently. Connor and Dubois have been their hottest players recently. Took Connor to score vs the Flyers two games back and that hit. Scheifele right behind them. a couple d-men like Morrissey have potential as well. Obviously rattling off six names doesn’t help, so sticking with Ehlers +135, half unit.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the biggest favorite that sticks out to me is Seattle -115 vs Calgary. I have Seattle as the better team so getting them at 53 percent at home has to be a play for me. Seeing Calgary down big to Chicago, I would have preferred the Flames to win that game. Just an inconsistent Calgary team all year that books have continued to overprice. Either based on potential or metrics I dunno. I really liked the Devils line today and that didn’t pan out so, seeing a similar situation on tomorrow’s Seattle line. Hopefully I can bounce back and get the result tomorrow, but either way I see value on Seattle at that price.
Most the other games I tended to see value only with the dogs. But none that I wanna play as of now.
Seattle -115 vs Calgary on Friday