Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 27th, 2024
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Wish I had taken the Knights yesterday. They got the job done with a solid 5-2 victory over the Rangers.
It was a tight one for the Panthers. Their offense regressed as the numbers suggested they would, but the Penguins continued to underperform offensively and Panthers were able to get the win.
Nice and easy one for the Avs, and the victory over the Hawks didn’t help the Kraken.
It’s Saturday. The usual insane day. Then we have almost nothing going on all week due to the All-Star break. Must admit I am looking forward to having next weekend off. Will be nice actually going out on a Friday and not having to call it super early due to having to cover so much NHL the next day.
Man, how funny would it be if the Oilers have their winning streak end today, then have to wait like 10 days to get back on the ice.
Let’s get to it:
Flyers vs Bruins:
Flyers come in on a bad run. Bruins though mixed results and their current road form means I wouldn’t even consider them for an in regulation play. No bet. I’d be surprised if Bruins don’t win this one in regulation though. Just their road form coming in here is so iffy.
Stars vs Capitals:
I like Stars in regulation but the odds are a bit iffy at 1.74. Couple of really tight games lately and there have been a few games where they just get rocked. Stars better Corsi and Fenwick. Goal metrics in favour of them, xG stats are a bit tight. I like the Stars here, but it’s not in that overwhelming way that makes it an easy bet.
Sharks vs Sabres:
Eh. I mean the data is generally in favour of the Sabres but don’t really want to back them in regulation on the road.
Oilers vs Predators:
Yeah I man it generally looks like the Oilers will get the job done. All the metrics pretty much in their favour. Preds do have a better CF/60. It’s the defensive and goaltending work of the Oilers. Exquisite HDGA/60 and the Preds don’t have a good HDGF/60 so that’s nice to see.
Think Oilers should be ab;e to book this one.
Oilers in Regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/27 8:19:02 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hurricanes vs Coyotes:
Canes couple of close wins coming into this one. Arizona two losses in a row. I like the Canes but it’d have to be -1.5. The metrics do actually point to that. It’s close, but they lean towards it enough.
Arizona weak road record. Canes a beast at home.
The goalie situation is a bit concerning at the Canes. Kochetkov activated off IR and we don’t know yet who will start.
Yeah oevrall I like the Canes here. I think at the very worst, it’s a 0EV play.
Canes -1.5
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/27 8:19:02 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Canadiens:
Just don’t feel like backing the Pens at the moment, especially at such low odds. Aaaand on a back to back. No thanks.
Lightning vs Devils:
Tampa delivered for me the other night in a good game against the Coyotes. Devils come in struggling a fair bit. Odds on Tampa are fairly nice. Tampa slightly beter Corsi/Fenwick. The concern of course is that the Devils can make it a game when you look at their offensive metrics.
But they are just conceding goals too much. Lightning are a slight concern on that end – while the last 10 their defensive and goalie metrics are great – we’ve had two games in a row where they have conceded three goals.
Vanecek I assume they will roll with in net. He can be hot and cold. Came in and played well against the Canes but has been lit up by the Knights and Tampa recently.
There IS that concern in that these two just played and the Devils managed to get 3 goals past them – which is what I am worried about.
But I am going to roll with Tampa here regardless.
Lightning in Regulation if Vasy in net
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bovada
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/27 8:19:02 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Close one. I lean the Sens here. The metrics lean towards them too. Just noit enough for me to back them at these odds. And despite result results and performances, they are a very hard team to bet. Plus you factor in the Rangesr are so hot and cold. Sens to win would be a very marginal play. I don’t hate it, but just feels a bit too much of a gamble.
Jets vs Leafs:
Just played. No thanks.
Islanders vs Panthers:
The data is pretty overwhelming in favour of the Panthers here. But on a B2B and with some iffy results lately coming into this – I’ll pass.
Red Wings vs Knights:
Passing on this one. Data has a slight lean towards the Knights, but B2B and on the road I’ll skip it.
Wild vs Ducks:
Actually pretty close in a lot of the metrics. I’d still make Wild favourites just not as heavy as they are.
Flames vs Blackhawks:
Zero interest in backing the Flames -1.5.
Canucks vs Jackets:
Would have to be Canucks -1.5. It’s preeeety close. Pretty, pretty close. I’d just prefer to see slightly worse defensive metrics for the Jackets. I know they have taken some poundings but they have some solid defensive metrics. Canucks rely quite heavily on HD Goals, and the Jackets have a solid enough HDGA/60 of 1.66. I’ll pass.
The most important thing about today’s games is that most teams are playing their last game before the long break and some may have next to no motivation. Few teams are playing over the next 4 days. Some teams will be happy enough with 1 point (Ties in regulation are extra likely in this situation) and fight for that. Some are on a roll (like Edmonton) and will continue good performance to sound of the last whistle.
Elevated chances of TIE in regulation:
Toronto/Winnipeg, New Jersey/Tampa, and to a lesser degree: Schittsburgh/Montreal
Full game UNDER 7.0: Vegas/Detroit
WIN on moneyline: Vancouver
Lean: Oilers WIN another one, moneyline
Lean: risky, TIE in regulation, Arizona/Hurricanes
I expect the Oilers to win, but they have had to recover from being behind to take some games in their winning streak, and an early game looking ahead to the break may make them vulnerable if they lose focus, presuming Nashville hasn’t already lost motivation too. Nashville will have a very tough time scoring with the way the Oilers are boosting 200′ defense. Nashville may very well just be looking forward to getting home for the break, on some Mexican beach. Tequila! Tequila!
Rant: It’s stunning how bad Pittsburgh is at keeping their team updated (Washington too). Pittsburgh has “Superstar Disease”, and is stuck in the comfortable past as long as fans keep buying tickets. Nothing worthwhile changes. Even the Edmonton Oilers in the 1980’s had the good sense to look forward and try to keep their team updated, trading Gretzky and Kurri at an opportune time, as shocking to fans as that was. Pittsburgh can’t look forward for some reason, and the long-term fade they started years ago is now a consistent chronic limp.
Going with two plays where I feel like the price has dropped too low. This is not to be confused with me being confident in wins by either team, I just like the value. This is similar logic to me taking Penguins yesterday which also did not come through.
Rangers -110
Rangers lost yesterday. I was very close to taking Vegas yesterday with Hill in net so that loss doesn’t surprise me. They have had a poor month overall. 38 shots yesterday and solid XGF. They’ll get a better goaltending matchup tonight possibly. I’ve said countless times I’m not a Quick believer. But Shesterkin has been inconsistent and poor overall thru first half of season. So maybe not having him start here is a good thing. Like my next play it’s really just the price I’m getting the Rangers at that has me willing to back them. This opened Rangers -125 and Ottawa +110. It’s a line move I’m ok going against.
Islanders +124
I really was more interested in an Islanders score first bet. But seeing the line move and Islanders drop, I might be able to get better value here. Unsure of which one was the better play but I’ll try to monitor it for the future. It’s currently Islanders +124 but I think this one has a chance to drop even more so I’m going to wait until closer to game time to see if I can get an even better price on them. If they actually get more expensive for some reason, which I don’t think they will then this will be a no play for me.
Islanders were also victims of Vegas goaltender Adin Hill 2 games ago. No real shame in that seeing the year he’s had. The Montreal game was an odd one, where they dug themselves an early hole falling behind 3-0 in the first.
They did show fight tying the game up. Outshot Montreal 46-26. Had success on the Power Play. Which may benefit them against a Florida team on a back to back, and who gave the Penguins 8 power play opportunities of their own. So the Panthers defensemen and Barkov and Reinhart could have some extra wear on them for tonight. This is another game while I can’t envision a guaranteed win for the Islanders, I see potential value in going against the line move.
One line move I am curious seeing how it plays out is in the Vegas at Detroit game. Vegas coming off the win last night. Logan Thompson should be in net so we might see what Vegas looks like without Hill in there. This opened Detroit-115 at home. I actually expected some movement to come in on Vegas going 5-0-1 over their last six games. However it’s been nothing but movement on the Wings now sitting at -135.
Today I had/have:
Oilers in regulation
Wild in regulation
Tampa in regulation
Canes in regulation
I had a nice and entertaining night of hockey yesterday! Had several bets that hit and 1 that didn’t:
Vegas in regulation
Marchessault to score
Avs in regulation
Makar to score
Penguins incl OT/SO
Guentzel to score
If only the Pens pulled that one off, the night would have been complete.
Was considering a bet on the Kraken game too, but I couldn’t watch the game so I skipped it. Considered Kraken in regulation and McCann to score. Glad I skipped it!