Written by Graeme on Thursday, March 17th, 2016
Follow @BetNHL
Sorry again about the delay in tips today.
I’ve unfortunately not been able to have the chance to sit down with Scott and go over everything today. That’s my bad for being away longer than I thought – and now anything we’d be doing now would be completely rushed.
I started to do it today and then am like nope way too rushed and would be a mistake making picks today.
I’m going to skip the tips today but am making this post because some of our awesome readers will be posting tips in the comments, and also to post the 1st period tips.
Here they are:
Experimental Betting Systems:
(Our 1st period systems are based on 3 levels of confidence that the system has for each pick. Ideally all 3 systems will be winners long runs, with the high confidence system doing the best but with the least amount of picks etc)
1st Period System High Confidence: Pittsburgh Penguins (2.55), Columbus Blue Jackets (3.15), Minnesota (2.80)
1st Period System Medium Confidence: San Jose Sharks (2.65)
1st Period System Low Confidence: Nashville Predators (2.80)
Bet 1st Periods at http://www.bet365.com(Non-Americans) http://www.bovada.lv(Americans) or 888 Sports..
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
I definitely going with the Pens (in regulation)
– I can’t really imagine that the Lefs will win again. Panthers looked strong in last games.
– Sharks will be a solid pick too.
– Preds vs. Isles Over 5!? Not really sure about that.
Wating for your thoughts ๐
Going with pens as well in spite of leafs playing well lately
TO has a lot of Ls lately, but they are playing good teams tough. Lots of one goal games and wins vs good teams that under-estimated them, like Bolts in last game.
Goal scorers?
Your pics are awful anyways, no one wants them. 0-3 last night. Great job!
That’s hockey you dope
Lol. Yup
“Iโve been burned by the Canucks a few times already this season. However I generally like their home form โ even when they lose itโs usually a battle. Avs on the road have had serious issues lately and we saw the Canucks 5-1 win over Colorado last month. While I expect a closer game tonight I like the Canucks here.”
And that’s a pick with “analysis” ?
Yes a game in February really is a telling sign of how a game in March with playoff implications on the line will go. Good call
What predictions do u have today, I wanna see if u do well
They are simply giving their opinion. If you disagree, don’t take it. And don’t come back blaming them for your choice.
Don’t be a tool and blame others when you follow their advice just cause you’re upset over a loss. Don’t bet what you’re not willing to lose… Take your complaints elsewhere no one needs the negativity
If you think their picks suck, why are you following? That sounds mental to me.
Rest assured that a lot more thought goes into each tip than just that. Sometimes the write ups don’t always reflect that though. However we do believe that previous games within the season are always a factor and sometimes going back multiple seasons.
Pal I come here everyday just to see what he thinks… He didn’t pull a gun and forced you to bet… Just use your brains dude and a lot of people also has different opinions… I didn’t agree on everything so… I bet the opposite or something else.. Nobody has to jump on their tips…
Anyways he got the flyers right and I got it wrong so.. U see there will be always differences ..
If u don’t understand hockey just bet little and try it out
I know it’s frustrating, but you have to take the long view and not let the variance get you worked up. Look at the tips but do your own analysis too. Hockey is very unpredictable and there will be bad nights. Just got to roll with it.
That’s exactly right. They go 2-1 for a month and buddy freaks about 0-3 for one night
It happens. I mean you see it in the comments too a lot. Someone does well and a couple bad nights and being crapped on.
It’s just people letting off steam. We have had it often over the last few years. That’s why we post a bunch if educational stuff too. But we know losing sucks and if people want to blow off steam at us that’s fine ๐
u mad bro
He mad, don’t you know it’s not allowed to have a single bad day? ๐
Yup, he mad!
They win more than they lose. That’s better than most people can do.
Nice 1st comment mate.
They’re well above +100 units for this season. If you convert one unit to 10$, or whatever amount you choose as your unit, im sure you can do the math. That’s _free_ cash for anyone who follows them throughout the year.
Gotta love people who have no clue how hard it is to post great tips consistently and think they can make a fortune on a free site on the internet.
How are they “well above 100 units this season”? Where do you see this?
On the right side of the page.
They’re only around 9+ units for this season, but over the course of the past few years they’re +130.
I incorrectly wrote “this season” and edited it out just after you posted ^^
Point is still there though, they always win at least something in the long run, and that’s better than nothing for free tips.
Right. There’s a massive difference though. I still get your point, and I agree. Being in the black is better than nothing.
Yep.
MY PICKS TONIGHT
MIN
FLA
SJ
Hi all,
No need to use insulting language here. Lads are taking time to do this and I respect that. All kudos and one big thank you.
I and many others lost money last night…so what! Get over it and move on…
I played Dallas to win tonight and Chicago to win tomorrow.
Greetings from CZ.
Playing Hawks tonight as well – hope they deliver :).
greetings from Slovakia hehe :).
go with S&G’s 1st period tips for low units:
Penguins(1st Perd) -ยฝ +121
Wild(1st Perd) -ยฝ +150
Sharks(1st Perd) -ยฝ +141
Blue Jackets(1st Perd) -110
I really like the Kings to be all over the NYR tonight. Rangers have struggled on the road this season and despite close win last night I think they will come out flat. Lundqvist and D has not been sharp lately. Kings are playing with a great deal of confidence. 4-1 last 5 and scoring lots of goals. I see them winning in reg, winning by 2+ and scoring 3+. I see the game going over 5 or pushing. LAK 4-2
I like Pens in reg. They’ve been playing well and Murray has an edge over Lack.
Leafs have been extremely pesky lately. All these young guys are pumped to be in the show and they’ve given a lot of good teams a run for their money. Not only do I see them playing Cats tough, but I think they win in reg.
Preds and Isles both have the ability to put up lots of goals and with both jostling for playoff position this game will have playoff energy. Might come down to the wire and be an OT game
Yotes can surprise but Sharks are the better team and have been playing well. Sharks in reg
I really wanted to believe that CBJ suck, but they keep proving me wrong. They can put up a stinker, but they play good teams hard. Detroit just can’t seem to finish and I think CBJ takes it to them tonight. CBJ ML
No idea who is going to win the Bolts-Stars game, but I am betting there are lots of goals. At least 2 in the 1st and O5.5
Wild/NJ Devils O5 +130 – a push at least. both teams have been in plenty of 5+ games recently and with two leaky goalies…it’s a lock.
I think the Wild destroys Devils tonight and win handily 5-2
good luck boys
I respectfully disagree on Lundqvist, he’s been lights out ever since New Years. Any game he’s given up more then 2 games is because he’s been completely left out to dry from our D.
I do however agree that Kings should win today, Rangers D (and coach) has been abyssmal lately and AV keeps feeding big minutes to Staal and Girardi.
Kings ML and Florida RT in my opinion for tonight
what is RT mate?
Regulation Time (1X2)
MIN-NJD = Wild in regulation @ 2.10
It’s never easy with the Wild, especially this season. Every other game they have huge problems putting the puck in the back of the net and so they let teams hang around and bite them in the butt. Devils often play well against them and they’re looking to end their home slump + the Wild desperately need points, so my first thought was “there’s no way im going to back them in this one” as it smells just like another game where they can’t score. But then after looking at the Devils home form, it’s just so bad. In their last 3 home games they’ve been outscored 13-2. Meanwhile they play pretty well on the road, which could mean they just don’t like to play in their own building at the moment. And when you don’t enjoy playing that’s never a good thing. I think this boosts the Wild’s chances to win just enough to make me want to bet this one.
CAR-PIT = Under 5.5 @ 1.66
When two divisional rivals, one great team playing well and one non-playoff team not getting good results, go head to head i swear they’re almost always 2-1 type of games. And it makes sense. There’s some level of overconfidence from the better team and that results in lack of killer instinct in scoring chances, but at the same time they’re just that much better so they are able to keep the puck out of their net. I feel pretty good about this being another one of those games. Don’t like the Pens odds at all, as the Canes are playing well and can get games past regulation.
DET-CBJ = Jackets ML @ 1.94
I think Detroit might actually miss the playoffs this year. They’re slumping in the worst possible time and something just haven’t been clicking there all season long. They will fight for the win tonight, but so will the Jackets who have dropped 2 in a row both on home ice, being a bit unlucky in both games. I’ve liked Columbus in the past month or so and they are capable of winning any game. In this one i think the home advantage makes all the difference and i think the Jackets are the more positive group. Also Bob vs Howard.
FLA-TOR = Over 5 @ 1.82
Maple Leafs have actually played some impressive hockey the past few games, considering what they’ve got to work with. Babcock truly is a great coach. I honestly don’t know what’s going to happen in this game, i think there’s a very good chance the Panthers will not have their focus tonight, but whether or not they’re just too good remains to be seen. Either way i like there to be goals, as the Leafs have got their offense going a bit but they’ve hit the comfort zone now. I doubt they will be defending with the same type of intensity and commitment they have in the past couple of games.
NYI-NSH = Islanders in regulation @ 3.10
Preds have been kind of meh lately. Probably because they’ve been playing against pretty bad teams. In their last 6 games the Avalanche are by far the best team they’ve faced. Losses to the Flames and Canucks were quite ugly to be honest. Meanwhile the Islanders have played playoff type games – Rangers, Penguins x2, Panthers, Bruins… They haven’t got the best results but did play pretty well against all of them. I like the Isles to be ready to get this one, and well, just look at that value. Also note: Isles have won past 4 meetings.
TBL-DAL = Lightning ML @ 1.95
Bishop vs Lehtonen is what it comes down to. The Stars goaltending situation is a disaster at the moment. I know Kari is able to have that great game here and there, and that the Stars play on the ice have been quite good lately, but im expecting the Bolts to respond and get out of their slump. If that loss against the Leafs doesn’t wake up the team’s compete level than i don’t know what does.
SJS-ARI = Sharks in regulation @ 2.00
Sharks usually take care of the Coyotes and without OEL i don’t see much of a chance for the Yotes here. Basically i think the Sharks take this in regulation over 50 % of the time, so that makes it worth it. If this is the odd game they sleep on Arizona completely then say “that’s hockey” and move on. But it’ll be interesting how Mike Smith does in net after a long absence. If you think about he didn’t have much competition before Domingue who right now looks like a real challenger for Smith.
NYR-LAK = Rangers in regulation @ 3.75
Look at those odds. Rangers are the underdogs and very much in range of beating the Kings after a nice confidence boost in their win over the Ducks last night. I swear the Kings ALWAYS get massively overrated when they get on a bit of a streak. Obviously i won’t go betting my house on this one, but if i get my small stake back 3.75 times im happy.
Good luck boys !
I mostly feel the same as you this fixture, went with the higher variance on Wild and Sharks though and took the -1.5 on both.
Also did Over 2.5 on Tampa instead of ML, i think Tampa will have a good game but you never know with Benn, Seguin and Klingberg ๐
Great writeup as usual ๐
Thanks ๐
Isn’t Klingberg still out tho ?
Maybe he is, Dallas offence is still lethal though so went with the O 2.5, time will tell if that was wise or not.
In any case i think that’s a pretty good one to be honest. You’d think when Tampa comes to play they can pot in few goals behind Lehtonen, although that PP have been abysmal lately. Hopefully they get their shit together for this one.
Yeah, it’s about time they start rolling offensivel again, Dallas is a good team to start against to, mediocre defense and a subpar goalie ๐
I like Dallas
What would be your one pick for tonight?
Man that’s a tough one. There really isn’t a single “must bet” game today, like the Avs were last night.
Im kind of scared to name one above the rest lol ^^
Islanders have the best value IMO. But now that i say it they probably lose.
Lol i feel ya
what great values there!! gonna try few of them. hope it goes as good as last night ๐ neither less great values!
Terrible start, 2 quick goals for both Canes and Devils :/
No kidding lol, didn’t see that coming.
I don’t think anyone did. Even the 1st period system is stunned at that one ๐
Don’t tell me this is another one of those OT nights.
Uh-oh, seems like one of those nights where everything possible goes wrong :/
Yup, i still have a few bets that can save me though, Sharks and Rangers winning would certainly help alot. Islanders turning it around would be helpful too ๐
Yay, Tampa just scored atleast!
Sorry guys, that instantly went to my top 3 worst nights of the season, and i thought i go through it game by game to show a great example of variance in hockey, all (unfortunately) packed in one night.
MIN-NJD
I mentioned how i wasn’t going to bet on this game as i don’t trust the Wild atm, but the Devils home form (outscored 13-2 in the last 3) was just too bad (or good however you want to say it) pass on. But they ended up scoring 7 goals against Minnesota of all teams. Seems like everything possible went wrong for the Wild. Dubnyk had a bad game, Devils got the bounces and well when this team that’s having troubles scoring gets behind by multiple goals it’s over. I mean, the Devils decided they’re going to win this game, but that to us betters was impossible to know and history shows when you lose 3 home games in a row and take a beating in the process it’s not easy to snap out of it.
But okay Devils got it done, not totally unpredictable, no biggie, lets move on.
CAR-PIT
Canes scored 2 goals in the first couple of minutes and Crosby made it 2-1 In the 1st period. I mean, that was literally the worst start to the goal bet of under 5.5 i had. Despite this start it ended only 1 goal over 5.5. What can you say, goal totals are the ultimate variance bets, nothing you can do about a start like that.
Unfortunate, but something you always have to be prepared for. And maybe it wasn’t that smart of a bet when you think about how fast both of those teams are, but i did explain my reasoning and it’s worked out countless times before. Move along.
DET-CBJ
What can i say here. I havent watched the highlights or anything, but i thought i had a pretty good case for Columbus. It wasn’t a high confidence pick or anything though, and marginals are small in these type of games where both teams are willing to work for the win. Howard outplayed Bobrovsky and when you consider Howard’s form this season that won’t happen very often.
Okay that’s 3 losses, maybe the next ones will hit.
FLA-TOR
Over 5 ended as push. Lots of chances but couldn’t get that 6th goal.
NYI-NSH
I loved this pick and would make it again. But the Islanders looked tired. I have done a lot of research on fatigue factor and believe me, it doesn’t affect the outcome of a game as much as people think, at least in the NHL. Especially when you haven’t played the night before. But the Isles have had a lot of playoff type games lately and that ended up showing this time. I can’t remember a lot of games from this season when a team had an off-day and looked tired the game after. Fairly rare, but odds were great so you can’t expect to win it all the time.
Disappointed by the outcome, and maybe the Isles are a team to look out for fatigue more than others because their travel schedule is tough (new home arena is far away from the players homes) but i would’ve made that pick 10 times out of 10. If i start playing around possible fatigue i’d lose a lot of good picks.
SJS-ARI
I based this pick on Coyotes missing their clear #1 player, Sharks being hot and their great record vs Arizona. I mentioned how i was ready to lose this but thought the Sharks would win over 50% of the time making the odds somewhat worth it.
And of course this is the odd night they sleep on the Coyotes.
TBL-DAL
Now this is the one pick i’d like to have back. I knew i should have left it alone and not roll the dice and it ended up costing me. I mean i had a case for the Bolts that made sense, but that shouldn’t have been enough to back them.
So that’s the one bet i didn’t think was smart, happens every other night.
So at this point im like everything possible has gone wrong so far. Maybe the Rangers and their 3.75 odds are going to save me here.
NYR-LAK
Rangers have a 2 goal lead in the 3rd and lose it. I mean what more can you ask from a high value pick like that. Kudos to the Kings for getting it done, but they weren’t going to tie that up 10 times out of 10.
It just so happens they tied it tonight.
So all in all, i went 0-7 with a 1 push. And i can’t honestly say i made terrible picks. I knew the night had a possibility for high variance and thus i didn’t have a single high stake bet, but still i would’ve never expected to go 0-7 and thought all my picks were reasonable.
That’s hockey for you.
Arto, it happens. Perhaps you shouldnt pick all games of the night, but your most 3-4 favorite ones. Goodluck next time, no worries keep it going! We trust in you.
Yeah i know, but still 0-7 is something you don’t want to see lol.
But for sure, that’s one of my bad habits and has always been. Sometimes i’d probably make money by leaving certain games alone. Just have to start improving on that ๐
That was a rough night, i mostly saw the games just like you and had a rough night, i did manage to in 2 bets atleast with Panthers and Bolts Over 2.5.
2 bets can save a night, sadly those 2 bets were those i had the least Units on so no, i lost ๐
no problem buddy! we will get the bookmakers next time!! Keep it up ๐
Your night was about as good (not) as mine.
nvm, didn’t read everything ๐
Yep. Its actually written on the sidebar although may not be clear enough but for calculating stats we use it as if we are flat betting 1 unit every time.
Yeah, kept reading after i posted and saw that ๐
Honestly, the way things have been going this past week, you’re prolly better off consistently just going for the underdog. Maximum value. It’s not like it’s any more unlikely, lol.
Exactly what I’ve been thinking lately, just never had the guts to actually go for it. Last night, almost all of the winners were underdogs. And this has indeed been happening for the past week or two.
Thanks for your tips guys. Happy Saint Patty’s day. Cheers!
I don’t really have much to add for tonight. I’m feeling a little crazy so I’m going with a 2 unit parlay on Panthers -1.5 and Sharks -1.5. Decent return if they both hit and I’m banking on Toronto’s decent performance as of late ending, and the missing OEL to play a factor.
Rough start to the night for most tips here (and me *sadface*), hope the night turns around.
I’m still sticking with you (have for a while) but this March is kicking your arse! Hope the luck turns soon, drained my account.
Sorry guys, that instantly went to my top 3 worst nights of the season, and i thought i go through it game by game to show a great example of variance in hockey, all (unfortunately) packed in one night.
MIN-NJD
I mentioned how i wasn’t going to bet on this game as i don’t trust the Wild atm, but the Devils home form (outscored 13-2 in the last 3) was just too bad (or good however you want to say it) pass on. But they ended up scoring 7 goals against Minnesota of all teams. Seems like everything possible went wrong for the Wild. Dubnyk had a bad game, Devils got the bounces and well when this team that’s having troubles scoring gets behind by multiple goals it’s over. I mean, the Devils decided they’re going to win this game, but that to us betters was impossible to know and history shows when you lose 3 home games in a row and take a beating in the process it’s not easy to snap out of it.
But okay Devils got it done, not totally unpredictable, no biggie, lets move on.
CAR-PIT
Canes scored 2 goals in the first couple of minutes and Crosby made it 2-1 In the 1st period. I mean, that was literally the worst start to the goal bet of under 5.5 i had. Despite this start it ended only 1 goal over 5.5. What can you say, goal totals are the ultimate variance bets, nothing you can do about a start like that.
Unfortunate, but something you always have to be prepared for. And maybe it wasn’t that smart of a bet when you think about how fast both of those teams are, but i did explain my reasoning and it’s worked out countless times before. Move along.
DET-CBJ
What can i say here. I havent watched the highlights or anything, but i thought i had a pretty good case for Columbus. It wasn’t a high confidence pick or anything though, and marginals are small in these type of games where both teams are willing to work for the win. Howard outplayed Bobrovsky and when you consider Howard’s form this season that won’t happen very often.
Okay that’s 3 losses, maybe the next ones will hit.
FLA-TOR
Over 5 ended as push. Lots of chances but couldn’t get that 6th goal.
NYI-NSH
I loved this pick and would make it again. But the Islanders looked tired. I have done a lot of research on fatigue factor and believe me, it doesn’t affect the outcome of a game as much as people think, at least in the NHL. Especially when you haven’t played the night before. But the Isles have had a lot of playoff type games lately and that ended up showing this time. I can’t remember a lot of games from this season when a team had an off-day and looked tired the game after. Fairly rare, but odds were great so you can’t expect to win it all the time.
Disappointed by the outcome, and maybe the Isles are a team to look out for fatigue more than others because their travel schedule is tough (new home arena is far away from the players homes) but i would’ve made that pick 10 times out of 10. If i start playing around possible fatigue i’d lose a lot of good picks.
SJS-ARI
I based this pick on Coyotes missing their clear #1 player, Sharks being hot and their great record vs Arizona. I mentioned how i was ready to lose this but thought the Sharks would win over 50% of the time making the odds somewhat worth it.
And of course this is the odd night they sleep on the Coyotes.
TBL-DAL
Now this is the one pick i’d like to have back. I knew i should have left it alone and not roll the dice and it ended up costing me. I mean i had a case for the Bolts that made sense, but that shouldn’t have been enough to back them.
So that’s the one bet i didn’t think was smart, happens every other night.
So at this point im like everything possible has gone wrong so far. Maybe the Rangers and their 3.75 odds are going to save me here.
NYR-LAK
Rangers have a 2 goal lead in the 3rd and lose it. I mean what more can you ask from a high value pick like that. Kudos to the Kings for getting it done, but they weren’t going to tie that up 10 times out of 10.
It just so happens they tied it tonight.
So all in all, i went 0-7 with a 1 push. And i can’t honestly say i made terrible picks. I knew the night had a possibility for high variance and thus i didn’t have a single high stake bet, but still i would’ve never expected to go 0-7 and thought all my picks were reasonable.
That’s hockey for you.
Could have been nice profit if Sharks had won. Two slips minus one slip small profit overal plus 30 euros..