Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 18th, 2023
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A disappointing one last night, as the Capitals couldn’t capitalize on the poor defense of the St. Louis Blues. Joel Hofer was one of the stars of the game in that one, as the Blues goaltender saved 32 out of 34 shots.
A tad annoying as I was going back and forth between the Caps team total, and the over. However I would have considered myself very fortunate if I had went with the over – as I wasn’t expecting it to go over in that manner.
Leafs got a nice win over the Hurricanes yesterday. Buffalo fell to the Flyers, and the Ducks got a big win in an 11 goal thriller.
It’s Saturday. There’s a billion games. Only 4 of these Saturday slates left. Can’t wait until I can relax on Saturday mornings. Let’s get to it.
Red Wings vs Avalanche:
Wings coming in rested after that 2-1 loss to the Preds. Avs are playing well enough I guess but when you look at their W-L record recently it’s a bit opponent dependent.
Wings when they raise their game can be impressive – look at the games against Boston last week. Metrics don’t support the over. Would have to be Avs in reg. Eh. It’s close. At home against this opposition I could see Detroit pushing here. Not loving it.
Wild vs Bruins:
It’s a pity the Wild defense has deserted them last couple of games or we could have our first ever under 1.5 play. Boston rebounded with a good win over the Jets. It’s a rare 5.5 line. Don’t see those often.
Neither teams defensive metrics are really anything mindblowing at the moment. SCGA/60 is the only REALLY good metric for both teams, and the Wild GA/60 although that’s been blown out of the water lately.
I’m actually going to go with Over 5.5 in this one. I know it’s a bit risky with the overall defensive metrics of either side, but neither has been too hot lately and their offenses are performing very well.
Ontario: 1.88 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/18 10:28:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Predators vs Jets:
Two teams that I have hated betting on for years. Quick loook at the metrics says that with the Jets overall goaltending, Preds should get the win. But their offense is a bit blah.
Kraken vs Oilers:
Two teams that can be a bit iffy. Some of the metrics point to it being an over game but a bit concerned mostly with the Kraken and their SCGF/SCGA. Then you look at it and it’s basically an over 7 game odds wise. Not worth it – although if Campbell is in net, I’ll probably back it myself. Seattles offense just can be so inconsistent. Like they really should have hammered it home against the Sharks. Feels similar to the January 17 game where you’re backing it but if it comes in, it’s likely due to the Oilers offense.
Flyers vs Hurricanes:
Flyers ended their losing run with a nice win over Buffalo yesterday. They did come alive against a team with poor defensive metrics – but that is not something Carolina has.
The Canes off that Leafs game – with both teams on a B2B, I’m fine with skipping it.
Panthers vs Devils:
Panthers had some fascinating matches lately. Now hosting a slightly struggling Devils team. By the metrics, Devils have the advantage in goaltending and defense but this Panthers offense doing well and actually underperforming, so more to come from them it seems.
Close one. I think I’d lean the Panthers just due to their offense. But the Devils defensive metrics are solid.
Lightning vs Canadiens:
With the way the Habs results have been lately I’m a bit surprised this one wasn’t set at a 7 O/U. If betting Tampa, it has to be -2.5. Not seeing that at all. Not enough here for the over.
Senators vs Leafs:
Ah ye olde Battle of Ontario. Can be bangers. Last time they played, the Sens ran out 6-2 winners. Leafs on a B2B, and the Sens come in having seen their playoff hopes practically disappear this past week. Leafs looking to put the final nail in their coffin.
This certainly has the potential to go over, especially considering the two teams playing but it just ventures too much into gamble territory for me.
Rangers vs Penguins:
Again? JFC.
Flames vs Stars:
Unfortunately, games involving Calgary are firmly on my “no bet” list at this point and all the metrics in the world won’t change that. Looking at said metrics – eh, I’d lean the Stars overall. But then they just lost 5-4 to the Flames, they’ve had two bad games on this trip already, and the Flames offense is ticking. All of that actually leads to a solid Flames win. So yeah this is a big no bet for me. Flames not winning here would be typical of them.
Kings vs Canucks:
Kings come in rolling. Canucks after some good performances lost to the Coyotes. By the metrics, it’s certainly a bit close. It could be a tight one looking at the defensive metrics. Both have really low SCGA.
I went into this one looking to bet Kings in regulation, and I still like that bet. But I’m actually going to go for a rare under play. Under 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO if Demko in net. And whetherer it’s Korpisalo or Copley, I’m fine with them.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/18 10:28:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Coyotes vs Blackhawks:
Nothing really jumping out to me. Slight lean on the Coyotes with their offense at the moment but I’m not taking them in regulation.
Sharks vs Islanders:
Don’t have the confidence in the Islanders in regulation which is what it would have to be.
Car Aho +110
7 game 22 shot drought currently, and gets to face Sandstrom of Philly today. In Sandstrom’s 4 games in the 2023 calendar year, 0-4 giving up 4 goals in three of those 4. The one team he held to just 1 goal and still got the loss? This Carolina team on March 9th. I don’t think he’ll have that same success today. Previous longest drought for Aho on the season,has been 6 games 17 shots. And still within his career ranges. Surprised to get him at slight plus money.
NJ Hughes +105
Meier at +100 not a bad choice but, I lean Hughes. Most takeaways will be Florida’s first period offense vs Montreal in that wild game. But what’s concerning to me is what the Florida story has been most this year. And that’s their defense and goaltending. If Montreal can get 5, what can this NJ team be capable of with their metrics. And the shot totals over the last five and ten have been Hischier, Meier, and Hughes leading the way. Devils tend to split the three up, so none should get in each other’s way.
Florida Barkov +155
Went back and forth on leaving him off. Saw Akira Schmid listed as likely to start for NJ. In his small sample he’s had impressive numbers. However looking at just his last four and his opponents he’s been successful against (Montreal and Washington) I don’t think Florida fits that bill. More important is the Devils ability to limit shots against, by dominating the metrics. I do believe Barkov can still get his shots though.
Carolina Burns +400
Longer shot then Aho obviously. His droughts have been snapped around that 25 to 30 shot range. And he’s at about 29 right now. And has a decent matchup that hasn’t been reflected on his current price.
Tampa Hedman +380 and Sergachev +450
Two solo bets. Sort of splitting the difference and hoping at least one of the two will cash, instead of landing on one and having it potentially be the other. Of course neither defenseman could score as well. However facing Montreal, coming off that wild Florida game, I believe opportunities will be there. Montembeault confirmed for Montreal, who started that Tampa game, was pulled, and then was put back in. Suzuki did come out and say that game was unacceptable. What else is he gonna say?
If I had to take one Tampa player most likely to score, it would be Point, not one of the d-men. But priced at -135 and has just one shot his last three games. I do expect that to change here but the price point made it easier for to me look elsewhere.
Seattle Larsson +800
I just like the price. Oilers will start Skinner so I would have liked this much better if it was Campbell that he got to face. I don’t think his past years in Edmonton will add any extra motivation either. You can argue this should be left off my card. Strictly a price point value play at +800, but very low expectancy on this cashing.
Pit vs Rangers
Crosby, Trocheck, Fox to score same game parlay +3000
why not?