Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 30th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Thanks to Scott who handled tips for me last week while I was in the wonderful city of Chicago.
We’re into the last two weeks of the season, and we’ve mentioned before, this is not the best time for tips and bets. There are some seasons where we’ve actually just taken this time off.
However we’ll continue to run through the games, and hey hopefully something jumps out at us. And if it doesn’t suck it up – only a couple more weeks until the playoffs, where we strive to make a bet in every single game, and analyze every series. Can’t wait for that.
Let’s get to todays and don’t be surprised if write-ups are short. Metrics are generally thrown out the window at this period of the season.
Panthers vs Wings:
Florida quite simply can’t be trusted right now. Metrics are actually fairly close anyway.
Wild vs Knights:
Wild still fighting valiantly for the playoffs but it’s not looking likely. Bit of a tricky game here against the Knights who are trying to confirm their spot. Slight lean on Knights but the odds match that so no bet.
Oilers vs Ducks:
Would have to be Oilers -2.5. No thanks with how many they have conceded lately. By the metrics, I think they are likely to cover that though.
Avalanche vs Predators:
Nothing here.
Coyotes vs Rangers:
Coyotes offense firing on all cylinders at the moment. Can they keep that up here? Rangers aren’t too bad there with GA & xGA at about 2.84 each last 10.
Hmmm if the Coyotes offense keeps going, this could merit an over pick. Let’s look into that more. Over 6. Coyotes scored all those goals against Preds and Jackets. Let’s see where they measure up defensively against the Rangers going through the last 10.
I mean Jackets defensive metrics are terrible but Preds are better than Rangers. Coyotes are like Predators kryptonite at times it seems.
In saying that, Rangers have a killer record against the Coyotes. Beat them last 5, and 14-1-2 over 17 games. They’ve also did a good job at stifyling them.
Eh. Not a play I’m particularly in love with. But what the hey. Both teams scoring, Rangers playing generally well, Coyotes hungry. Let’s go nuts.
Coyotes/Rangers Over 6 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.97 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -103 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.97 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/30 10:50:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Bruins:
Nothing jumping out here.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes:
Canes do kinda seem like that team that are wanting to make a mark before the playoffs begin. Going up against a Montreal team crushing it at the moment.
Not a big fan of taking -1.5 on the road. Data has to really support it. And alas it does not. Canes with a bad xGA there and the SCG stats don’t back it up. If Canes were scoring more HDGF goals it’d be play probably as the Habs have a brutal HDCA.
Flyers vs Blackhawks:
Nothing here.
Lightning vs Islanders:
Tampa another team looking like they are prepping for the playoffs. Islanders are battling hard with a 13.5% chance to make the playoffs according to Moneypuck. Liked the way the Lightning defense set up against Boston.
Islanders quite lucky to get the win against the Panthers. Varlamov was mental at the end.
This one comes down to the data, and I think there is just enough to take Tampa here. Their GF/60 and SCGF/60 stats are great. Their xGF/60 isn’t which is a concern.
Lightning in regulation if Vasy in net
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/03/30 10:50:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Senators:
Nothing here. Was hoping the metrics might swing a wee play on the Sens but no.
Blue Jackets vs Penguins
Just played. Nada.
Sabres vs Leafs:
Could be a high scoring game with the goal metrics. Leafs usually come out on top on those Leafs in regulation is a bit tempting I have to say. When I balance it all up though, I’d say there’s a 50/50 chance of it and with the Leafs at 1.95 – juuust not a play.
Blues vs Sharks:
Blues playing well but I cannot back that team at -1.5. For the record, the metrics do kinda point to it based on the Sharks defensive metrics.
So while I’m not backing it, if you are considering it I’ll look at the empty net data. Playing with an empty net, Sharks concede 15 out of 33 times. Playing against an empty net, Blues score 14 of 32 times. So if it’s a one goal game, it looks likely that the Blues can get that empty net so if you’re on the fence, that should make it a play.
Kraken vs Stars:
Nothing here. I do lean Dallas but 4th game on the road trip and Kraken can be tricky.
Flames vs Kings:
Nothing here. Calgary are terrible though and hopefully LA bounce back.
St. Louis being 5 points out of the last Wild Card spot, playing San Jose today, at home, rested, they aught to be going full animal for the win. St. Louis on the moneyline looks like free money, and the -1.5 puckline I figure is 75% probable. -2.5 is NOT out of the question. San Jose is that lousy if the other team shows up. The Blues have the offense and defense for this, and LA might be beat or tied in regulation by the enigmatic Flames today.
The current trends indicate a puckline win for Dallas. That’s never safe, but Seattle has fallen off some kind of edge. Dallas shouldn’t be tired, they haven’t been challenged on this road trip yet and they get 3 days off after this game.
Carolina is chasing the Rangers but recently lost to both Pittsburgh and Washington, so since that reeks, I’m off that game. The Habs may have rediscovered defense.
I can’t bet on Philly to win today; they’re so inconsistent, and Chicago can beat any team who doesn’t show up. Total chaos there.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
I take Vegas ML* @ 1.80 with 4 units
BIG LOL @ Minnesota. Those tricks don’t work twice.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +27.81 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
I take Tampa ML @ 1.61 with 2 units
Tampa is destroying the Islanders right now. xD
20 shots vs 4 shots. Gogo Tampa.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
I take Dallas regular @ 2.00 with 1 unit
How big is your 1 unit? Just curious 😀
Since you asked so nicely, I can tell you the truth right away. It’s twisted in my case. I always bet so that I get a unit out. A unit can be 50 dollars, for example. Then I bet 100 dollars at odds of 1.5. With odds of 2, I bet 50 dollars. In other words, in reality I don’t pay attention to the units I bet, but to the fact that I end up with 1 unit profit. In general, I don’t always write all my tips. For example, Ottawa won for me recently and on another dry spell I once listened to a tip from a friend for fun, but he has no idea. So it’s all relative. As it is here with the units, I would say 10 dollars per unit, but as I said, I never actually bet like that. 😇