Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 4th, 2023
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Hi guys,
Apologizes for the delay in getting the tips up today. Woke up late then was focused on the F1 qualifying as well as the soccer and didn’t want to get into the NHL until all that was done.
Speaking of I’ll be doing F1 tips over at my Patreon and right now it’s free with no charge until at LEAST May 1st. So you can sign up and if you aren’t happy with the betting tips there, just cancel before May 1st and not pay a penny. The Bahrain tips will be up tonight at some point. I crushed F1 last year for +12.13u, and am +75.5u over 5 full seasons. So yeah if you’re an F1, NBA or MLB fan, now’s a good time to sign up at the Patreon.
It was a winning night last night. Oilers got the job done. Devils vs Knights was the tight one I expected with the Knights pulling it out in a shootout.
Due to late posting, I’ll skip the three early games.
Stars vs Avalanche:
Dallas had a good win over Chicago. But they are not really a team you can back. Avs meanwhile have been playing well but a generally tricky road tie. Dallas overall this season 16-8-8 at home, not bad. Was earlier in the season where they were a beast at the American Airlines Center – not as much lately.
By the metrics – eh yeah it does look to be farely close. I’d give a slight lean to the Avs but the Stars offense has actually got clicking and are producing like the should be, and could see that continuing here. Especially with the Avs xGA. No bet.
Panthers vs Penguins:
Interesting seeing the Penguins as dogs here, considering the results of both teams coming into this. I guess its with Barkov back, and Bennett appears likely. Not like the Panthers were crushing it then started losing when they both went out though.
Looking at the metrics – Panthers offensive metrics in Corsi and Fenciwk are impressive. Should be scoring SOOOOOO many more goals. Pens also should be though.
Oh yeah looking at these, the odds make a lot more sense. This looks a game RIPE for the Panthers offense. Which we saw on January 24.
I’d like to take the over but 6.5 is only 1.74. Meh. Panthers over 3.5 goals is about 1.86. I think I like that the best.
Panthers Over 3.5 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: Bovada usually has it although not seeing it tbh. They do have various other score props.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds atBet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/04 12:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Sharks vs Capitals:
Neither team really appealing, and the Caps odds are gross. Actually looking at it, I don’t hate the Sharks here. Their offense should be scoring a lot more, and the Caps defensive metrics are piss poor. Of course, Sabres had similar metrics and Sharks could only rustle 2 up against them.
Of course it’s a bit had to guage all that with all teh changes due to the trade deadline. But I mean looking back at the February 12th game it was all fairly similar metrics and we saw what happened here.
This is a good enough price for me. Sharks win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/04 12:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Jackets:
Senators on a missin at the moment. Would have to be the handicap which they have covered in their last 4 games. Jackets though have been feisty. It’s close, but the metrics don’t give me enough faith in the handicap. I do like it, but I’d need a better price than 1.86 I think. That seems to be right on the money.
Jets vs Oilers:
Eh, nah. B2B, exact same teams just the venue changes. Always weirdness.
Canucks vs Leafs:
Canucks been running teams close enough that I’m not loving Leafs here and it’d have to be in regulation. With the Canucks defensive metrics you’d think the Leafs rack up the goals against them. But they’re a bit iffy lately and Matthews is concerning me. No bet, but decent lean towards Leafs in reg.
Blackhawks vs Predators:
Preds should win but not loving the odds on the in regulation. In saying that, looking at the metrics it seems a fine enough play. I’m really close on this one, but Nashville always give me the jitters. If you’re debating it I’d say go for it though. I’ve just been burnt by the Preds so many times before it’s hard to back them in very close spots like this.
Flames vs Wild:
Flames a bit of a dumpster fire at the moment. Wild though so many tight games. Surprised Wild are such big dogs. Flames overall offensive metrics are impressive. But then so are the Canucks, and Minnesota stifled them there.
Minnesota have did a good job defensively, and the Flames are looking leaky. Minnesota got start scoring more you think at some point. I think if Fleury is in it’s okay too, but I’m gonna be cautious and go with Wild to win incl OT/SO if Gustavsson in net. He just gives them that extra edge in goal.
Ontario: 2.30 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.37 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +137 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.37 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/04 12:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Blues:
Yeah the Kings look fine here for an in regulation play. Some struggles lately of course, but they should take advantage of the poor Blues defense. I’ve got to think they’re over teh Quick drama now. But in saying that it looks like Korpisalo starts toight and eh – I don’t know. Their goaltending situation is a bit iffy. If this was a better price than 1.80 for the in regulation win I’d be all over it, but I think with it being so tight I’ll pass.
DeNapos made a post in yesterdays thread due to this not being up yet. Here is what he posted:
March 4 early afternoon picks
Tampa Bay Kucherov to score +155
Was initially going to be Hagel at +180. However, Hagel doesn’t shoot consistently enough to tip today with so many games and options. He is on a line with Point and Kucherov so it makes sense why his opportunities are so limited. Prior to his 3 shots vs Pittsburgh, he took just one shot over a 3 game span. His shooting percentage is a good one at 16.7. Currently above his career high 15.9. However to add to my point of his lack of shooting, his 132 shots thru 61 games this season, is already a career high for him.
The argument for Hagel is he’s currently on a 9 game goalless streak. Up until then his longest goalless streak this season has been 6 games.
Jumping over to Kucherov. Gets to face Buffalo and Eric Comrie. My theory for goalies with low save percentages is take guys who shoot the puck often, and Kucherov has fit that bill. 20 shots over his last 5, 34 over his last 10. I believe he leads Tampa forwards in that span. The 11.2 shooting percentage he’s currently at this season, is his lowest since his rookie year. And off his career average of 14.6. Not crazy with the early afternoon start, so hope everyone is ready to play.
I’ll also be taking Hedman here at +425. One of two longer shot,lower expectation defenseman I’ll be picking today. The other will be Fox at +500 vs Boston. Hedman did just score in his most recent game, so the chance of him scoring again here isn’t great. However, 25 shots over his last 6 games. One of the goals also came against Buffalo for what that’s worth. At the price point worth it, but I won’t be surprised if this is too aggressive and doesn’t cash.
Boston Debrusk +175
Pastrnak always a threat to score but the +100 for him makes it slightly easier to pass on. Had trouble choosing between Debrusk and Marchand. Both going at the same price.
New York Rangers Fox +500
Low expectations based on the opponent. However the price reflects that as well. He went from +350 in his last game now up to the +500 here. Worth a shot at that price I feel, but opportunities will be extremely limited and he’ll have to cash in the chance he gets. Assuming he even gets one.
I have a few more for games later in the day that I will try to post as well.
Tampa Bay Kucherov +155
Boston Debrusk +175
Longer shot way low expectations
Tampa Bay Hedman +425
New York Rangers Fox +500
Tampa Bay already tipped off for what it’s worth I went with Kucherov +155. And a longer shot lower expectation bet on Hedman +425.
Boston Debrusk +175
Pastrnak always a threat to score but the +100 for him makes it slightly easier to pass on. Had trouble choosing between Debrusk and Marchand. Both going at the same price.
New York Rangers Fox +500
Low expectations based on the opponent. However the price reflects that as well. He went from +350 in his last game now up to the +500 here. Worth a shot at that price I feel, but opportunities will be extremely limited and he’ll have to cash in the chance he gets. Assuming he even gets one.
Pittsburgh Guentzel +130
Five games without a goal. Longest goalless streak this season his been 8. 17 shots over his last 5, so still getting chances. Also shooting percentage below his career average, as he consistently has hit 15 percent or better most seasons.
Ottawa DeBrincat +130
Gets the unknown of Hutchinson. Goes a little hot and cold as far as shots on net go.
Having trouble choosing between Kempe +130 and Fiala +140 for the Kings. Will post later when I decide who.
Boston Debrusk +175
Pittsburgh Guentzel +130
Ottawa DeBrincat +130
Rangers Fox +500
Thanks for the repost. Will be tailing the Florida over 3.5 team total as you sold me. When looking at Florida goal scorers, I had to pass on taking one because I was thinking oh everyone should score. Barkov should score, and Verhaeghe, and Tkachuk and Ekblad and Bennett and Reinhart. So hopefully they all do lol. Jarry hasn’t been as sharp as of late either. Good luck on all your UFC, F1 and other plays today as well.
(already bet the full game OVER 6.0 for the Buffalo game and at the end of Period 1, it’s 1-1. 🙂 )
To WIN moneyline: Nashville
Full game UNDER 6.5: Flames/Wild
Strong leans: to WIN puckline: Ottawa and Nashville
Lean: Full game OVER 6.0: Panthers/Pens
I see a major obstacle to goals in the Flames game. Flames can’t score often and neither can Minnesota, plus the Wild have great defense in general. Flames defensive core is excellent, and while Markstrom is often Swiss cheese early in a game, that should be greatly mitigated by Minnesota’s generally lower offensive stats, and against a rested Flames squad.
Nashville isn’t the strongest team, but Chicago just lost two top goal scorers and many other players; they will be in temporary disarray while working in new players, so Nashville, who need points badly (and still have a -3 goal differential), should show up fully excited to win.
A game with the Pens in it always gives me ebola-like shivers, so that’s only a lean.