Written by Scott on Tuesday, March 7th, 2023
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Hey everyone.
Had 2 tips yesterday and went a disappointing 0-2.
I had over 7 in the Oilers vs Sabres game but it only hit 6 when the Oilers won 4-2. Jeff Skinner missed a wide open goal twice during the game for the Sabres and if he could have scored even once it would have been a much different game.
I also had the Jets to win in regulation against the Sharks. The Sharks managed to tie it at 2 with 10 seconds left to give us the loss and Couture scored the OT winner.
A busy night with 10 games and a bunch are mismatches so the odds are terrible. Despite there being 10 games I’m having a tough time finding tips. Most games need the spread and even there the odds are low.
Hurricanes vs Canadiens
The Canes have won their last 2 games and are 7-3 over last 10. They are leading the Metro division with 90 points.
The Canadiens have lost their last 3 games and are all but eliminated being 15 points back.
On the road the Canes have been good going 19-5-6. They are 7th in GPG and 3rd in shots on goal per game. Defensively they have been great ranking 2nd in GAPG and 1st in shots allowed per game.
The Canes should win this but, unfortunately, the sportsbooks agree. We would need to take them -1.5 for odds around 1.76. Not worth it in my opinion when they are the visiting team.
Flyers vs Lightning
The Lightning have to get their shit together. They have dropped their last 5 straight and are 2-5-3 over last 10. They are in 3rd in the Atlantic with 79 points.
The Flyers won their last game but are 2-6-2 over last 10.
On the road Philly has gone 12-13-7 and the Lightning have gone an amazing 22-5-4 at home.
Would have to take the spread here and with the way the Lightning have been playing there’s no way I’m touching that.
Knights vs Panthers
The Knights are in 1st in the Pacific but just barely with the Kings tied with them in points but have played 2 more games.
The Panthers are part of that cluster of teams on the outside looking in in the Eastern Conference.
The Panthers are at the point where each and every loss is a huge blow to their playoff chances and will need to play strongly to finish off the year. Offensively they have been good ranking 8th in GPG and 1st in shots on goal per but defensively they have shit the bed and that’s whats killing them. They rank 23rd in GAPG and 22nd in SAPG.
The Knights are opening a 3 game road trip with this game against some tough teams. After this game they play the Lightning and the Hurricanes.
I want to take the Panthers here as I think they are a better team than their record but the Knights are also a good team who needs points.
I have to pass on this one. I could make an argument for each team to win and when that’s the case its easier to avoid a tip altogether.
Jackets vs Penguins
The Jackets suck.
The Penguins are in the final wild card spot and need to win games like this one to gain much needed points. On paper they should pound them but they have had mixed results of late. Luckily for them they have a veteran squad who knows what it takes to dig themselves out of this funk and win as there are a few teams right behind them.
I would need to take the Pens -1.5 and with them at home and in need of points I think it’s worth taking that.
Penguins -1.5
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/07 9:07:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Devils
This is, in my opinion, the game of the night.
The Leafs are in the 2nd in the Atlantic and the Devils 2nd in the Metro.
In GPG the Leafs are 9th and the Devils 4th. In GAPG the Leafs are 5th and the Devils 7th and in SOGA the Leafs are 6th and the Devils 5th.
The Leafs are without Tavares, O’Reilly and Schenn which will be a tough hurdle for them against the Devils.
At home the Devils have gone 18-11-2, on the road the Leafs 15-11-4. This game could go either way.
This should be a great game and a fun watch and as for a tip I feel better just skipping it.
Sabres vs Islanders
The Islanders are in 7th and it looks as though that may be as high as they can climb unless they go on a run and the teams in front of them go on a losing streak. The only team they realistically catch is the Rangers who have 7 more points than them with 2 fewer games played.
The Sabres need points to get themselves closer to the Penguins who also play tonight. But with them playing last night I’m reluctant to tip them or this game.
Flames vs Wild
With the way the Flames have been playing this looks like a win for the Wild.
The Wild have won their last 4 games and are at home where they have gone 21-10-2.
The Flames won last night but are 3-5-2 over last 10 including a 5 game losing skid in there.
They have played twice this season with each team winning once including the Wild winning with ease against them on Saturday 3-0. Over the last 5 games going back to 2022 the Flames have won 3 of them.
The Wild have been playing great going 8-1-1 over their last 10. The Flames snapped their losing skid so will be looking to build some momentum after beating the Central leading Stars.
I could make a case for each team here. I would lean towards a Wild win but the Flames have their backs against the wall and need points.
Blues vs Coyotes
I can’t find anything I like for this game.
The Blues are 15 points out of the playoff picture and with the teams in front of them and who is in they are all but eliminated.
The Coyotes are in worse shape then them. They are 22 points back.
It’s an easy pass for me on this game.
Sharks vs Avalanche
The Sharks played, and won last night.
Not sure what’s going on with the Avalanche. I do understand that they are dealing with injuries but this team is stacked and much better than their record would suggest. They have lost 3 in a row.
But it’s another game where I would have to take the spread to get just barely over our minimum. And with the way they have been playing its an easy pass for me.
Ducks vs Kraken
The Ducks are in 29th place in the league and they have virtually zero chance of getting anywhere close to the postseason picture.
The Kraken have won their last 3 games and are in a fight the the Pacific Divison.
It’s a problem when a bad team is playing a strong team on the road and the odds are almost impossible to back.
I like the Kraken to win but it would need to be -1.5. 2 of the 4 games on their win streak have needed overtime which has me put off of that.
There are a few obvious leans tonight but some days just give me the feeling that nothing is going to be profitable and surprises will rule. Likely not betting.
Flames/Wild UNDER 6.5
Leans: to Win moneyline: Seattle and Colorado
I suspect Anaheim won 4 of its last 5 because the other teams were not doing well at the time, especially Washington. But Anaheim has been scoring well, so that puts the puckline risk out of reach. Seattle needs points: the Oilers are likely going to pass them, and the western Wild Card race is risky enough, they don’t want to get caught in it.
Colorado needs points and has been playing well against much tougher opponents. I don’t expect either team to be fully energized tonight; San Jose is on a back-to-back and Colorado had one night off after completing a back-to-back.
Kahkonen in net for Sharks and he sucks. Sharks do have a good PK which they showed us last night killing 7 of 7 but they should be tired now.
Colorado TT over 4
Tkachuk +100
Choosing him over Barkov who’s going at +150.
Pit Guentzel -105
Both Crosby’s linemates Guentzel and Rakell have gone 6 games and 8 games without a goal. They are at home and face Merzlikins. Crosby should make it a priority to get one of them a goal. Guentzel the bett career shooting percentages. Hate the minus money. Rakell going at +160.
Carolina Aho +100
Still within his averages. Good matchup
Buffalo Dahlin +360
Long shot. Wish I didn’t take him the game before and waited. Not the best matchup. The logic behind taking him is the long scoring drought. However injuries have broken up and interrupted his time so I could be early here but like the value if he can net one. Taking another chance on him.
Colorado Toews +380
Wish the payout was a little higher.
Two team Parlay
Tampa and Pittsburgh both in regulation +127
Like the plus money value on this two teamer
CBJ up 3-0 ten minutes in and in the live wagering a Pittsburgh money line is being priced at +230. They are roughly still giving Pittsburgh a 30 percent chance to win.
For reference Vegas down 1-0 to Florida and is being priced at +270.
Just found that interesting. CBJ up 3-0 is just -290. Florida up 1 on Vegas is -350.