Written by Graeme on Thursday, March 9th, 2023
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It’s a busy Thursday in the NHL with a fair amount of games.
Yesterday saw a few close games. Red Wings were able to get a tight victory over the Blackhawks, the Canucks squeaked the win over the Ducks in OT, and the Winnipeg Jets continue to absolutely suck.
To their credit, they managed to get 2 goals against the Wild. A rare achievement.
Let’s hop right into tonights games:
Penguins vs Islanders:
Penguins are a bit “eh” at the moment. Surprised they are such favourites considering the Islanders playing well, and Islanders also beat them twice in the past month.
The Penguins biggest issue right now is defense and goaltending. Both are abysmal and they are conceding a ridiculous 3.66 SCGA/60. Islanders should be conceding more though and Pens should be scoring more. Don’t feel super great about this one. The over is a possibility but it’s borderline. The Islanders SCGF/60 of 2.07 is low but against this Pens team they shouldn’t have a problem. Eh – just too close for me.
Sabres vs Stars:
Dallas come in off that tough Flames loss. Man the Sabres defensive and goals / chances conceded metrics are so bad. Dallas conceding more than they should right now. Sabres offense can be productive. No bet. Another game where the over is tempting though.
Capitals vs Devils:
Neither side looks appealing. The over 6.5 is tempting. Let’s see – the only yellow flag on it is the Devils defensive metrics which border on the 2.5 goals conceded line. Of course with the way things are going, Devils should score at least 4 here,
Let’s go with that. Devils GF/60 of 4.15 isn’t flattering it is as expected. Caps defensive metrics piss poor.
Devils Over 3.5 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bovada
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/09 11:03:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Rangers:
I had to do a double take when my basic system suggested the Habs actually win here based on their home form primarily.
I mean when you look at the metrics – I don’t know if they’ll win. But damn if it isn’t a bit closer than the sportsbooks suggest. Not one I can actually advise, but man looking at it I wouldn’t be surprised.
Hurricanes vs Flyers:
Canes too much of a favourite to consider betting here.
Lightning vs Knights:
Tampa struggling hard at the moment. Knights generally playing well. Tampa strong favourites.
It’s tricky as Tampas biggest issues is goals conceded at the moment. Defensive metrics are on par with the Knights. The Knights offense is not overwhelming enough to bet them sadly.
Bruins vs Oilers:
The Boston machine looks to continue, as they host the Oilers. These two had a tight one a couple of weeks ago when Boston won 3-2. Just not worth betting this one I feel. The Bruins goaltending right now is killing it but this Oilers offense is not one you really want to back a defense or goalie against. Especially at those odds.
Blues vs Sharks:
Nothhing here. Blues favourites which – I don’t know if I fully agree with it but I can’t back the Sharks here. Over might appear tempting but you have to hope these offenses roll against poor defenses and I’ve learned in the past it’s best not to bet on the back of bad defenses the over.
Avalanche vs Kings:
The Avs offense has been killing it lately and will probably continue here but there’s not enough for me to take them in regulation.
Coyotes vs Predators:
I like the Preds and they did win 6-2 here on the 26th. But not enough for me to take them in regulation. The SCG stats are concerning.
Kraken vs Senators:
Passing on this one. Actually a slight lean on the Sens but the price isn’t enough for me.
Tampa Stamkos to Score +130. Tough choice between him and Kucherov but going with Stamkos.
Tampa Sergachev +600 if Hedman doesn’t play.
Hedman has been out a couple and Sergachev has filled into his spot. Vs Quick he could get added opportunities especially if he has Kucherov feeding him the puck. Hedman is a game time decision though and if he gives it a go he might take back over his role. Or he can play a reduced amount of minutes. Makes it slightly murky if Hedman indeed plays.
Would like to pick someone on Carolina especially with Sandstrom getting the start for Philly. But struggling to pick who it should be. Especially while being at work.
Been following starting this season and first time commenting. Just wanna say big thanks for what you guys do with this site and the tips. I’ve learned so much particularly on bankroll management and how to take this so much more seriously.
Also love the discussions daily on player props. As an avid fantasy hockey player it something that really jives with my experience.
Player I’m targeting tonight and figured I’d pass along is Josi at +190.
For the last few years he’s just chewed up the Yotes averaging about 5.5 Shots per game the last few seasons against them. With him now being the only guy left on the powerplay he going to get his looks.
Thanks for the feedback and great to hear from you. Also, love the comments about bankroll management – that is so important. The variance in all sports can be nasty, and if you really want to make money from sports betting just have to remember it’s a marathon, not a sprint, etc. And of course – sometimes shit happens. I mean in the past month or two I’ve lost bets where I’ve said beforehand “sometimes the Caps are gonna Cap it up” or “sometimes the Flames offense just disappears” and that is exactly what has happened. It is what it is 🙂
I honestly found your article on bankroll management life changing for my gambling. I’d love to hear your thoughts or updates on the topic it if you had anything else not part of previous post.
One thing I do a lot more these days is have separate bankrolls for everything. And I mentally run my confidence on plays on a 1-3 scale and go with that. In the above tips for example I had a few leans so I wasn’t fully confident. So I still bet them but with the “confidence 1 NHL bankroll”, if that makes sense. I’ve found mentally separating the bankrolls like that has really helped me. It’s also helped me spot when a bankroll is depleting and thinking “Oh I need to look into this it’s not working” if that makes sense.
In Formula 1 for example, a friend of mine likes to bet “first constructor to retire”. He does 4 bets each race, odds usually ranging from 6.00 to 11.00. His theory being if one of them comes in, it is a profit. Last season I talked him into tracking that as a separate bankroll so he could actually see how it was working, and whether it was profitable or not.
Going for Devils reg, Avs reg and Kraken reg 🥳