Written by Graeme on Sunday, May 11th, 2025
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Well I should note that yesterday when I backed the Oilers to win – that was before the news came out that Pickard wasn’t going to be in net. Believe me – if I knew it was Skinner, there was no chance I was going to take them.
It’s not even just Skinner – but the defense as well. You watch some of those goals and they just play completely differently in front of him. Like yeah he probably should have stopped at least one of those but the defense are to blame.
Canes rocked the Capitals in a big way, winning both bets in the process which was a nice little bonus.
We’ve got an early game of the Stars vs Jets, and then the Panthers host the Leafs looking to tie up that series.
Stars vs Jets Game 3
Scott: The Jets got Morrissey back and also Hellebuyck found his game and the Jets won 4-0.
It was impressive the turnaround this team had from game 1. The outshot them in the 1st scoring twice in the process. Hellebuyck now has his confidence back which is going to be intimidating to the Stars.
Until the Stars break Hellebuyck and his confidence I’ll back them.
Jets win incl OT
Graeme: Jets by the metrics have been better over the course of the two games, and of course the wild card is Hellebuyck. But he proved himself last time, and you gotta figure it’s 50/50 whether he shows up and dominates or not. If he doesn’t, Jets can still win. So happy to back the Jets at + odds.
Jets win incl OT
Panthers vs Leafs Game 4
Scott: The Leafs were up 3-1 early in the 2nd until the Panthers scored 3 unanswered to take a 4-3 lead into the 3rd. Reilly scored his 4th of the playoffs to tie it and force overtime. Marchand deflected a shot in OT that beat Woll giving the Panthers the 5-4 win.
I don’t think either team needs to change their game plan as it was a great game. With that being said I’m going to continue tipping the over.
Over 6 incl OT
Graeme: I kinda like the Panthers here – although not enough to take them in regulation. I thought Bob was weak af throughout the game, but he stepped up in OT and might be able to roll that momentum into this one.
At the odds, I do think the Leafs are a value bet. It’s so tough to back them thought due to their metrics – like I’ve said, they were like this during the regular season but still got the job done. They are like the anti-Hurricanes in terms of metrics.
Player props are tricky because they are so dependent on how the game plays out too. Lets’ go with Carter Vehaeghe over 2.5 shots he’s been peppering them in usually no matter the situation.
Isn’t it time for a playoff game to go to 3rd Overtime and wear us all out? The Leafs/Panthers series could produce one of those. So could the Jets/Stars.
Full game OVER 6.0: Leafs/Panthers
Full game UNDER 7.0: Jets/Stars
Play money: Tie after regulation: Leafs/Panthers
I’m also looking through props options but don’t have a lot of time for that today.
I was reviewing previous playoff years, back to 2017, and Game 3’s have seen a lot of win/loss reversals. Game 4’s have had a lot of reversals of what happened in Game 3’s.
The Over/Under pattern in G1, G2, G3, G4, G5, etc, shows some patterns, and Game 4 for the Leafs, considering how those two teams play, looks solid as an Over. The head-to-head matchup history between Winnipeg and Dallas is CONSISTENT at producing UNDER results, so bumping it up one goal, to 7, also looks quite good.
The Jets went to Game 7 in Round 1, and I’m hoping they aren’t getting burned out. Dallas also went Game 7, and both teams could be showing exhaustion, which can leave offenses at lesser efforts and far fewer sustained rushes. Pond hockey and exhausting scrimmaging along the boards. Offense players might burn out first, defense second, and that leaves the goalies who could be the sharpest players tonight, especially in the second half of the game ►►► low scoring.
I agree with above. And comment here by rattler. I know a lot of people see Dallas as favorites and at home to boot BUT these teams are exhausted and starting to show in injuries. Winnipeg shows up, shuts Dallas down hard and holds them to 20-25 SOG and Helle has another stellar night..: I am taking the under 6.5 on this game as well.
Time will tell …. But after this game, we may have a clearer picture of this series I believe.