Written by Graeme on Tuesday, May 17th, 2022
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We now move on to the second round of the NHL playoffs.
Not sure about anyone else but man regardless of everything that happened in the first round, I am just pumped to get a Battle of Alberta.
That should be awesome and I hope every game has the teams fired up.
We’ve got two series kicking off tonight with the Panthers vs Lightning, and the Avalanche vs Blues.
Let’s get to it:
Blues vs Avalanche Series Predictions:
Scott: The Blues beat the Wild in 6 games. They were lead by Perron, 9 points, and O’Reilly, 8 points. The switched goalies and went back to Binnington who won all 3 games he started.
The Avalanche are going to be rested for this series as they swept the Predators and have been off since May 9th. Makar had 10 points in the 4 games, MacKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog all averaged more than a point per game.
During the regular season the Avs won the season series 2-1. All time in the playoffs the Blues are 1-9 against the Avalanche. The Blues were once a strong defensive team but they have turned into a more offensive squad with depth that is crucial in the playoffs. But when it comes to depth the Avs are about as deep as they get.
The Avalanche are really good and I expect them to win this series. I’m a little worried that with all the time off the Avs had it may take them some time to get back into the swing of playoff hockey but once they get back into it they will continue to roll.
Avalanche win in 5 – Avs -2.5 would be the play
Ontario: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +120 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/17 8:27:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I didn’t bet the Avs / Preds series due to Saros being out and I wasn’t sure if he’d be back or not. Scott nailed it with Avs -2.5. I was correct in the Blues making it through though with a nice 2.35 win.
The Avalanche sweeped the Preds but it’s hard to fully judge as the Preds were without Saros which really affected them. By the advanced metrics Avs were extremely dominant in both home games and slightly less so in the road games.
It’s quite fascinating to see as while they had the best /60 advanced offensive metrics mostly across the board – they were practically tied with the Flames on that note. Yet the GF/60 is of course radically different with the Flames a brutal GF/60. Flames xGF/60 was 3rd highest in playoffs.
By the advanced metrics, Blues were nothing special. In the regular season these two had three good games. Advanced metrics wise, Avs were dominant in all three. Some of the stats are mental like in the 4-3 win for the Avs on the 28th of October, Avs had 14 HDCF to just 1 by the Blues.
It will take time for the Avs to adjust I expect. The Blues four man rush will be a big factor for St. Louis. They are pretty decent at converting high danger chances. This could be a good high scoring series.
I feel like the Blues will pick up a couple of wins and could see this series going 4-2 Avs. Problem is Avs -1.5 isn’t a good price, and game 6 being the final game is only 3.25 odds. Not really worth it.
I’ll go with Over 5.5 Games just to have a bet.
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -140 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/17 8:27:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Panthers Series Predictions:
Scott: The Panthers beat the Caps in 6 games and it was their first series win since 1996. They won the final 3 games after being down in each. They are a great offensive team and Verhaeghe came alive during the first round putting up 12 points over the 6 games. It just shows you how deep and strong they are offensively when he outscores Huberdeau, Barkov and Reinhart.
The Lightning outlasted the Leafs in 7 games. They traded wins up until game 7 where they won for the 2nd game in a row. They will continue their quest for a 3-peat against the Panthers. The are a team that relies on a bunch of players to carry them offensively. Kucherov has 8 points, Hedman 7, Colton and Palat with and then there is 5 players with 4 points including Stamkos and Point.
These teams played each other 4 times during the regular season with the Lightning winning the series after going 2-1-1.
If the Lightning can get Stamkos and Point rolling they have a shot but I just can’t overlook the Panthers and their regular season results. Sure they had troubles with the Caps but it was nerves as the Panthers hadn’t won a playoff series 1996. Now with the monkey off of their back they could come alive.
Tough series to predict and I like it to go long. The Lightning have played a lot of hockey over the last couple seasons so that may end up catching up with them. It’s the Battle Of Florida so it’s going to be a good series.
Panthers in 6 or 7 – Panthers to win series
Ontario: 1.67 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Rest of Canada: 1.67 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -165 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.60 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/17 8:27:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Happy to say I called Tampa to make it here. I also bet Over 5.5 games in the Panthers vs Capital series and won that bet as well which was nice.
Looking at the advanced metrics in the regular season between these two – it went back and forth. The results as well were pretty back and forth.
Panthers concerned me a lot in that series against the Capitals honestly. Tampa didn’t concern me as much. It just felt like they were doing champion things without really having to flex too much. Vas really wasn’t a standout or anything. It’s actually quite concerning looking back at the advanced metrics that they were able to hold the Leafs off from really good offensive chances.
To me – Tampa looked like champions. Point is doubtful for Game 1. That’s certainly a big concern. He is a massive factor in that team as it’s not just on offense but on defense as well.
I’m going to go with Tampa to win with the hope that Point makes it back and is healthy. However what I will be doing is placing just half a unit on them to win the series. Then monitoring. If they go behind, and Point is able to return, then I’ll back the other half unit on them at a better price.
Ontario: 2.45 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.48 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +150 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.48 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/17 8:27:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
