Written by Graeme on Tuesday, May 2nd, 2023
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The New Jersey Devils got the win last night. I ended up doing that “back both extreme sides”, with Rangers over 4.5 and also under 1.5. Weird bet to make, and I spent most of the game unsure what I actually wanted. Still, it came in and was a nice profit.
The Devils winning was something I predicted before the series began, and means I went 6-2 in series predictions. The only losses were Wild/Stars to go 7 games, and Tampa to win.
Absolutely crushed it these playoffs so far which is nice.
We have two series starting today, with the Stars hosting the Kraken and the Leafs hosting the Panthers.
Let’s get to it:
Leafs vs Panthers Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Leafs have made it to the 2nd round for the first time since 2004. Marner had 11 points and Matthews scored 5 times.
The Panthers stunned the hockey world when they beat the Presidents Trophy winning Bruins after clawing their way into the postseason. Tkachuk leads this team and will be a big part of any success they have. He had 11 points including 5 goals and always was there when the team needed him.
They played 4 times during the regular season with the Leafs winning 3 times with 2 needing overtime. The Panthers win also needed OT.
After the Leafs finally got past the 1st round they will be flying but the Panthers just beat the record setting Bruins in OT in 7 games so they too have momentum.
On paper the Leafs should win this series and looking at the regular season record against them helps that too. I think that with the Leafs getting over the issue that has plagued them for the last 19 years it will be too much of a boost for the Panthers.
Leafs in 6 – 1.5 is the play
Ontario: 2.26 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.26 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.26 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/02 9:46:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Last time, I based my picks on advanced metrics. A combination of a few key periods during the regular season, as well as matchups between the teams.
I’ll continue with that, although will factor in metrics during the prior playoff series as well.
Over the course of the season, the Panthers had the 3rd best CF% while Leafs were 17th. Fenwick similar with Leafs in 11th. Panthers also had the best xGF/60. Season long, an excellent offense. It’s similar metrics with a few handpicked spots in the season. Leafs however were better defensively.
In the playoffs so far, the Panthers offense performed a lot better overall, however the defensive metrics for them are generally poor.
The teams played 4 times during the regular season and Leafs won 3 of them. One of the biggest deciding factors in those games was the Leafs ability to score from their high danger chances created. That’s a concern with Panthers top 10 in HDCA/60 over the season.
So this is my biggest concern – are the Panthers going to be able to beat the Leafs defense? Leafs had some concerning defensive metrics in the playoffs, but the Panthers have brutal defensive metrics.
Looking through everything, I agree that Leafs should be favourites. But I don’t think Panthers should be as big a dog as they are. I’d price them more in the 2.30 to 2.40 range. But I just can’t back the Panthers due to their defensive metrics. I can’t see anything that will help them there. If Leafs get the goaltending going, that would really help them.
Betting wise, I think I would prefer to focus on the individual games and will look to back some overs. I was happy to see that Panthers win against the Bruins as I was concerned about their mentality down the stretch in the regular season.
I’m going to go for something different here, which is two prop bets. Leafs to win the series from behind, meaning at some point they have to be losing the series. Honestly, I’m more going for that as I think the Panthers might be able to pull off the odd surprise or two, And also Leafs to win the series 4-2. Splitting a unit over both of those. Leafs -1.5 would be the more sensible bet to make of course, but I just feel like something different for this one. If you’re looking for an official tip from us, I’d go with Scott on the Leafs -1.5.
Best odds for Leafs to win from behind:
Ontario: 3.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 3.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +280 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 3.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/02 9:46:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Best odds for Leafs to win 4-2:
Ontario: 5.65 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 5.65 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: +450 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 5.50 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/02 9:46:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Kraken Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Stars beat the Wild in 6 games. They are lead by Hintz who caught fire in the 1st round leading them with 12 points and scoring 5 times.
The Kraken knocked off the defending Stanley Cup Champs, the Avalanche, to reach the 2nd round. Grubauer was huge in the series win against his former team. They didn’t have a player socre that many points, Gourde led them with 6, but they got through by having the whole team chip in.
They played 3 times during the regular season with the Stars winning twice.
With the Stars having a much deeper team offensively and having the better goalie I would think that they shouldn’t have a problem with the Kraken. But if round 1 showed us anything it’s that they won’t go easily. They also have a nice mix or youngsters and veterans which will go a long way for them.
Stars in 6
Graeme: I mean over the course of the regular season and even the playoffs, the Kraken just seemed like a 50/50 gamble in practically every game. Sometimes their offense would show up and just destroy teams 3 games in a row, then they would be held to 2 goals in 3 games. A hard team to figure out.
I remember at many points early in the regular season, pointing out that if they had goaltending they could be a force. That goaltending came in during the playoffs with a 2.7 GA/60 but the xGA/60 of 3.29. As a comparison, the regular season saw 3.06 GA/60 and xGA/60 of 2.77.
So it’s a big case of if their goaltending can hold up.
During the regular season, the teams played a trifecta of games in March. The concern there is Dallas were able to score 13 goals in those 3 games. Goaltending let the Kraken down big in those games. Dallas weren’t even anything special offensively. It was just the Kraken goaltending letting them down. The 5-2 win did see Stars log 4 HDGF.
Looking at the playoff data for both teams in 5 vs 5 you have to give the nod to the Kraken offensively in every single category. THat changes drastically in all scenarios. I did point that out during the series – the Stars PP unit was the big factor for them.
Krakens defensive metrics on PKs are concerning during the playoffs – goaltending again saved them a lot here.
So that’s what it comes down to really. Can the Kraken goaltending hold up during this series? THe Stars weren’t really that much more clinical than the Avs during their series etc. Or will the Stars be able to up the ante on 5 vs 5?
There’s nothing jarring in the metrics that leads me ot lean one way or the other. I’m going to take the Stars to win the series because I don’t think the goaltending can keep up, while I think the Stars offense can step it up more in 5 vs 5.
Stars -1.5 is the play due to the Stars winning odds not being good enough to back.
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.15 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/02 9:46:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Congrats on crushing the first round, Graeme. If I recall, you did the same thing last year as well.
Round 2 should be a good one. Can’t wait to hear what you guys think about the other two matchups.
I’m going to roll with Leafs series -1.5 and outright. Overs seem like the forecast for that series for sure on individual games.
Also going to sprinkle some on Seattle -1.5 series @ 4.00. Based purely on that 50/50 show up rate and the fact Dallas sometimes does the same. Series feels volatile as hell to me. Probably a couple OT games in there.
Graeme, Great record so far. When a lot people are down units you’ve crushed it. Kudos man.
Love the stats breakdown for these two series. As a Bs fan, I think the intangibles made a huge difference in that series: coaching decisions, emotional momentum, physicality and poor play of D doomed Bs. Stats are great for capping but those pesky other factors…
I like the over Cats-Leafs tonight, Nylander PPP +300.
Robo goal and Stars win parlay
GLTA SDB