Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 4th, 2022
Follow @BetNHL
Happy Star Trek Day or whatever it is. May your battlestars always be galactic.
It’s been an exciting start to the NHL playoffs.
Last night we saw a great battle between the Penguins and Rangers which went to triple OT. Shesterkin stood on his head there but it wasn’t enough as the Pens got the win.
The Flames beat the Stars in a tight one, the Avs dominated the Saros-less Preds like expected, and oof – how about those Capitals? They were up for that one. Probably the best the Caps have played all season. Florida will have some adjustments to make for Game 2.
We’ve got four Game 2s tonight so let’s get right into them – as a reminder, we don’t consider our series bets when providing game analysis and advice:
Hurricanes vs Bruins Betting Tips:
Scott: The Bruins lost the first game with Raanta getting the start. With Andersen out the Bruins need to take advantage of this as he will be back soon.
If the Bruins can pick up a win in game 2 they will even the series and it moves to Boston for games 3 and 4. They need to win this game as they can’t go down 2-0 with Andersen expected back soon.
Bruins win incl OT
Ontario: 2.03 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 2.03 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +104 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/04 8:27:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: It was an incredible win by the Canes in Game 1 although not really too deserved by the advanced metrics. Boston were the better team in Corsi, Fenwick etc, HDCF was even.
Basically both teams put on very good offensive performances, but the Canes goaltending held up which is impressive considering Andersen is out.
I’m not sure if Raanta can pull that off again. I’m going with Over 5.5 Goals incl OT/SO. Based on that game I’m quite surprised that the line is only 5.5 and am digging that a lot.
Ontario: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
Rest of Canada: 1.94 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -106 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.94 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/04 8:27:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Lightning Betting Tips:
Scott: Wow. The Leafs came ready and they ran the Lightning out of the building. 5-0 and their penalty kill was amazing killing all 5 Lightning powerplays.
I’m sure the Lightning will be better in game 2 but the fans were going nuts and it really helped push the Leafs. With game 2 still in Toronto it’s going to be another zoo.
The Lightning need to refocus and have a better game here but I’m not sure they can get it done in Toronto. I expect a better game but the fans really helped them in game 1.
Leafs win incl OT
Ontario: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -131 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/04 8:27:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: The crowd was absolutely incredible for Toronto. If you ever wonder why home ice is important – well there it is right there. Even the Clifford penalty and suspension; all that did was get the crowd riled up so much more and was just what the players needed.
I don’t think Tampa expected that at all. It was sheer domination from the Leafs and the crowd motivated them to play the full 60.
In theory, Tampa will come better prepared here. Just the question of whether they attempt to frustrate the crowd and Leafs and play contain, or whether they try and push hard for an early goal to try and kill them off.
One thing too was Tampa just looked lethagic. Leafs were out there fighting as if their lives were on the line and Tampa didn’t seem up for it at all. They did have a couple of key mistakes but overall it was just dominant by the Leafs.
Will be interesting if Tampa can make the adjustments tonight. Based on their overall stats in the regular season, they have the ability to play that frustrate strategy but it would be very easy to get carried away with how electric the crowd is.
This one I am just going back and forth on,.. I think how Tampa approaches the game will be a big factor in the over/under and that is a complete unknown. I think if I were to back the Leafs, I’d want that extra value of regulation. Actually it’s over coinflip odds, and with the crowd the way they are – yeah I think that makes there enough value there.
I’m not a fan of the incl OT bet simply because I think if it goes to OT, that is a “loss” for the Leafs with the way their fans are.
Value bet on Leafs in Regulation
Ontario: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/04 8:27:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Blues Betting Tips:
Scott: The Blues were incredible in game one and Perron scored a hat trick and added an assist.
The Wild will need to find a way to get pucks past Husso. They outshot the Blues 55-28 over the first two periods, but 14 of them went wide.
With the Wild still at home I like them to even the series here.
Wild win incl OT
Graeme: A great start for the Blues as it was quality over quantity. The advanced metrics are amusing for that one. Wild with a 62.5% Corsi and 59.55% Fenwick. Only one of the Blues goals were an HDGF and Wild had 18 HDCF.
Wild weren’t anything fantastic on the bounce back last season. I looked at previous games where they lost despite having higher advanced metrics trying to guage whether the heads go down or they bounce back but it was also inconclusive. Results did lean slightly in favour of the Wild.
I’d love to take a shot on them in regulation but they had so many OT games in the last 6 weeks of the season that that is really off-putting.
Blues generally relied on going for rebounds off Fleury and Wild should be able to plug that hole. Husso was excellent in that one as well and Blues were set up better defensively.
Based on the way the first game went – not factoring in the result – I think the Wild are able to plug the holes, make the tweaks and get a redemption game.
Wild incl OT
Ontario: 1.76 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.76 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -126 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/04 8:27:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Kings Betting Tips:
Scott: Well the goaltending was what sunk the Oilers in game 1. Smith misplayed the puck and decided to throw it out front of his own net which eventually lead to the game winning goal. The Oilers have lost their last 7 home playoff games.
The Oilers can’t afford to lose both games in Edmonton before the series moves to LA.
The Oilers will probably go back to Smith for game 2 and he will be looking to redeem himself.
Oilers in regulation
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/04 8:27:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I’m already looking back at my series prediction and shaking my head. I didn’t write off the Kings or anything but I did say Doughty being out wasn’t as big an impact as you’d expect – yet his being out was certainly a reason I went with the Oilers -1.5 for the series.
Kings were better in the advanced metrics in the regular season and were better in 5 vs 5 in Game 1. When we factor in all strengths, Oilers were very slightly better. Their power play is a tad dangerous!
I think the Oilers are ridiculously overpriced tonight based on matchups between the teams thus far.
Goaltending is an obvious concern for the Oilers. Quick is darn good especially playoff Quick but the Oilers were still able to get passed him.
I just can’t escape that value. I think the Oilers probably win. But the Kings were able to come here to an extremely loud environment and do the business. The Oilers relied on two power play goals.
I’m going to take that value on Kings Win – Draw No Bet as this is easily one that could go to OT based on the previous game.
Ontario: 2.65 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.65 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: No bet available but can do Kings or Tie for +100 at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.65 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/04 8:27:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Captain’s Log star date 2022-05-04.
To WIN moneyline: Carolina
St. Louis reverse: +1.0 (is 1.70!)
St. Louis reverse: +2.5 (a gift for parlays at 1.23)
Tampa/Leafs full game Over 6
Lean: to WIN, Oilers
Lean: St. Louis Team Total 5 or more (x6.00)
I’m still uncertain about a lot of things today, but those are good impressions. I am expecting St. Louis to win the game outright, so the odds are really off today, to the better’s advantage.
Team Totals going 5+ are a possibility with some teams, both long-term and with certain matchups and the odds are enticing. Just not convinced of the Oilers 2-way ability, but NHL radio commentators this morning were all over it saying the Oilers just barely lost to LA when playing quite poorly, and Smith really wasn’t the cause of the loss. He made one obvious error, but the team is favored in the series for a good reason and they should put on a much stronger show in Game Two. I can’t see shutting down Toronto’s goal scoring, so Tamps ramping up the scoring only means things gravitate to around 5.0 very quickly, and a count of 6 I feel comfortable with, not 6.5. I think Carolina is a steamroller and Boston lacks what it takes to shut them down. Watch for Boston desperation, but not a win.
Canes in Ml, reg and -1
Leafs in Ml, reg and -1
Lean. Blues inkl OT
Kings inkl OT