Written by Graeme on Tuesday, May 6th, 2025
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If you’re a fan of cheap sucker punches, you would have really enjoyed the Panthers vs Leafs game last night.
Florida are hitting an entirely new level of dirty. There was of course the hit by Bennett on Stolaz, but then the elbow completely off puck by Mikkola on Jarnkrok, and quite a few other nasty little hits from the Panthers.
Honestly it’s not even the Panthers to blame for this – it’s the NHL for allowing for it to happen. So much controversy over the game and talk about it and that will get people watching and much more interested. They thrive on it.
Unfortunately we’ll likely see another Bertuzzi-Moore situation before too long, but the NHL just don’t seem to care.
My hope is that the Leafs just say lets play the Panthers game, and start absolutely smashing them. If the NHL are letting it happen then man might as well. Although it won’t surprise me if Game 2 is a ref heavy game so they can say “see we’re on top of things” before going back to the norm.
It is what it is. Two games tonight as two new series begin so let’s cover these.
Capitals vs Hurricanes
Scott: The season series was a 2-2 toe between these teams.
The Canes got by the Devils in 5 games. They were led by Aho, Jarvis, Svechnikov, Blake, Hall and Stankovan.
They did get by the Devils but the Devils had been dealing with some key injuries. It would have been a different series had they had Jack and Luke Hughes and Dillon,
The Caps also got through in 5 games theirs was against the Canadiens. The were led by Ovechkin, Strome, Wilson, Beauvillier, McMichael and Protas.
The Habs showed some life winning 1 game but after that it was all Caps who flexed when they needed to and walked all over them.
The Caps impressed me in round 1. Wilson has matured and became such a huge piece of this team which helps take some of the pressure off of Ovechkin and Thompson played well too.
Caps win the series
Graeme: Looking forward to seeing the “Canadian” Alexander Mikhailovich Ovechkin in action in this one.
Let’s see the metrics (although it can be tough with the Cnes). As expected massive advantage in CF% & FF% for the Canes. Scored less, created more, conceded less by a decent chunk, xGA about the same. I’d be a tad concerned if I was a Canes fan with how much they replied ong oaltending, plus their SCGF/60.
Caps I think the big difference was the experience over the Habs. Especially that Game 4 game.
Canes create so many chances generally that even though their GF/60 is lower than their xGF/60 they make up for it with the quantity. Canes created a LOT in the two games against the Caps that matter with an xGF of 4.73 and 3.31. Not really factoring in those April ones.
I’m going with Canes to win the series. I don’t think either side beat particularly difficult teams to get here, but I think the Caps had the weaker oppostion and were able to take advantage of their inexperience – not a factor here.
Canes win Series – I’ll go with Canes -1.5
Golden Knights vs Oilers
Scott: The season series was 2-2 between these teams.
The Knights got by the Wild in 6 games. It wasn’t an easy series as 2 of their wins required overtime and another was a 1 goal game. They were led by Hertl, Stone, Eichel, Roy, Barbashev, and Pietrangelo.
This is a team that still has some of the pieces from their Stanley Cup winning roster in 2023. That experience is huge in the postseason. Plus getting Dorofeyev back is going to help them.
The Oilers got by the Kings for the 4th straight playoffs this time it took them 6 games. They had to switch their goalie in game 3. They were led by the usual suspects McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Bouchard and Brown.
The Oilers have plenty of playoff experience as the advanced to the Stanley Cup finals last season against the Panthers.
This should be a good series. I just find that the Oilers have the obvious advantage offensively and have so many players that can take over a series that I have to go with them.
Oilers win the series
Graeme: Oilers coming in with the momentum, and Pickard hopefully giving them a bit of confidence.
Let’s see those metrics. CF/60 is exactly the same. CA/60 yep pretty much. Oilers a GF/60 of 4.28 but impressively an xGF?60 of 4.27. That is insane and if they can keep that up – no problem.
I was a bit disappointed in the Knights defense and goaltending in the last series. They had a couple games where their xGA/60 was great but they were still conceding.
I think going against this offense full of confidence – going to be an issue.
Oilers win the series
The Canes are so relentless. I know they don’t get a lot of high danger chances… it shows they are led by Brind’amour … relentless badgers, hard working horses, never stop