Written by Graeme on Wednesday, May 7th, 2025
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The Hurricanes and Capitals went to OT last night with the Canes winning in what was – a sorta dull affair? Definitely a step down from some of the excitement we’ve seen the last few days.
Oilers decided to give the Knights a two goal start before flexing their offensive muscle and running out 4-2 winners in a big win over Vegas.
Two games today.
Leafs vs Panthers
Scott: The Leafs were able to get on the board early at 33 seconds into the game. They were up 4-1 heading into the 3rd.
Stolarz stopped 8 of the 9 shots he faced until Bennett hit him in the head with an elbow and there was no penalty on the play. Woll came in and didn’t have his best showing allowing 3 goals but he was thrown into the game for his first action since April 17th.
The Panthers did make a game of it after being down by 3 so I do expect them to have a better effort for the full 60 in game 2. The status of Stolarz is the main issue for me.
So much firepower between these teams. The Leafs need to take the early lead again and keep it without letting the Panthers back into it.
Over 5.5 incl OT
Ontario: 1.92 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.92 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -115 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/07 9:46:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: My theory going into this one is that with all of the drama over the Panthers and their actions in Game 1, we’ll see the refs hand out penalties like crazy to them this game. which ideally, the Leafs will take advantage of. But that’s IDEALLY. Panthers have a great penalty kill unit.
Leafs were excellent in Game 1 offense wise and they really looked like they were up for it which was nice to see.
With the odds, the possibilities of penalties galore, Willy styles on a hot streak, and the Leafs hopefully being motivated even moreso, I’m going with Leafs incl OT.
Ontario: 2.24 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.24 Odds at TonyBet
USA: +122 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/07 9:46:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Stars Series Betting Tips
Scott: The Stars were down 2-0 at 7 minutes into the 3rd. 3 goals and an assist for Rantanen in the 3rd period against his former team and the Stars won 4-2 Just an outstanding performance. Pete DeBoer is now 9-0 in game 7s.
Rantanen has 5 goals and 7 assists so far in these playoffs. He also had help from Hintz, Johnston, Benn, Harley and Seguin. They still have players who haven’t lived up to their potential like Granlund, Marchment and Duchene so they are a scary team. Without Robertson and Heiskanen they still took out the Avs.
The Jets also came from being down by 2 goals in the 3rd to tie it and win it. It took them to double overtime to get there though.
They were led by Connor, Scheifele, Perfetti, Namestnikov, Appleton and Niederreiter. Hellebuyck didn’t have the best series but for the Jets I hope he figured his shit out. After he let those two early goals in he looked great in game 7.
Both teams are coming off of 7 game wins. Both are dealing with injuries to key players and both didn’t get the best performances from their goalies. For me it comes down to which team can get and stay healthy. The Stars beat the Avs without Robertson or Heiskanen, the Jets beat the Blues in a game 7 double OT without Scheifele and Morrissey.
Stars-1.5 for the series
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.20 Odds at TonyBet
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/07 9:46:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: My gut says the Stars due to Hellebuyck just being toast – but the metrics are quite interesting. Jets much better CF% and FF%. Slightly worse GF% but much better xGF%.
The Stars defensive metrics overall are horrific from the series with the Avs. Granted, there were two absolute batterings in there but they were generally consistently bad.
I actually gotta go with the Jets here. The Stars defensive metrics are just brutal, and there is the possibility Hellebuyck turns good which would be a legitimate series changer.
Jets to win the series
Ontario: 2.55 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.60 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +160 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.60 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2025/05/07 9:46:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
These are two critical games for trying to figure out how some teams will play.
Will the Leafs show up with both self-discipline (to avoid penalties) AND the force to claim the win, or will the Panthers be successful in trying to win games by being mouthguard-chewing 9-year olds who primarily act like pests? During the regular season I usually don’t bet on the Leafs because they were unreliable, and the Panthers were usually only good to watch for possible full game Over 5.5 sort of thing. NOTE: that during the full regular season, Florida took 199 more penalty minutes than Toronto did. Florida took the most penalties of all teams in the NHL.
Lean: Tor/Flor Full game OVER 5.0
I expect 60 minutes of relatively clean hockey out of the Jets and Stars, but with so many important players as game-time decisions for both teams, how can I figure anything? They’ve each had at least 2 days rest, so that will be good for energy and composure. I can’t take an Over/Under or Prop bet because both teams regularly go into scoring slumps. Maybe Game 2? Also, it appears that Rantanen can be a scoring tornado once woken up, so will his late Round 1 performance persist into Round 2?