Written by Graeme on Wednesday, January 27th, 2016
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Yesterday was a fun reminder of the variance in hockey.
We had the Blackhawks to win. Actually almost everywhere you looked – people were tipping the Blackhawks. On other tips sites, on forums, on Twitter etc. Even in our own comments – people tipping the Hawks to win -1.5, people tipping Hawks in regulation etc.
Chicago get absolutely thumped 5-0.
Sometimes it’s variance – sometimes it’s just something that you missed. Always good to go back and look at a game like that and think “could I have bet that differently? Did I miss something?”. Sometimes it just IS variance – but it can be a good learning experience. Although it’s also a bit more difficult looking at it having already known the outcome.
Thankfully we won the other 2 bets for a winning night. We had the San Jose Sharks to win in regulation and they easily did that with a thumping victory. We also had Over 5 goals in Ducks vs Bruins and the Ducks went over that on their own with a crushing 6-2 victory.
Hopefully we can continue our nice run going into the all star break. We’ll do some betting tips articles for this weekend for sure – just have to wait and see what betting opportunities there are.
Lightning vs Leafs Betting Tips:
Both Tampa and Toronto are coming off thrashing from the Panthers with 5 goals conceded each.
Tampa can be fairly inconsistent at home. Well – they’ve been inconsistent all season. However one thing that has stood out is when they win at home, the majority of the time it’s by at least 2 goals.
After the Leafs performance last night it’s hard to see them be up for this game. Leafs HAVE been up for a lot of Lightning games in the past and these two usually battle well.
I’m going to take two bets in this game. Over 5 Goals and Lightning -1.5.
Canada: 2.25 Odds for -1.5, 1.80 odds for Over 5 at Bet365.
USA: -120 for Over 5 at BetOnline.., +125 for -1.5 at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds for -1.5, 1.80 odds for Over 5 at Bet365.
Capitals vs Flyers Betting Tips:
The only real negative is the Capitals are coming off a long break. It’s been 8 days since they last played on a 6-3 game vs Columbus. Have to be concerned about them being rusty.
Flyers will be up for this game but man – Washington are just a beast at home. We’re getting good odds on the handicap due to Flyers keeping a lot of games close. You have to go back to 2015 for the last time they lost by at least 2 goals. But none of those games were against the Washington Capitals.
Capitals -1.5.
Canada: 2.30 Odds at Bet365.
USA: +125 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365.
What about The kings? It looks like a good bet The handicap after a big thump they got yesterday from the Sharks , the thing is probably varlomov is back in the net?
Varl isn’t in net I am pretty sure. The odds weren’t up yet and I had to head out and it’s a pain to post from my phone. I will be looking at that one when home and will add it in comments and on social sites if its a pick.
Graeme
Nice, it looks better than that over 5 from Tampa .. Idk like I was a little surprised that reimer went down yesterday and the thing is the leafs have been pretty solid at least at the back, but they also are not a team that scores that much eheh
Had a huge last night going 7/9 with my predictions, betting-wise 6/7 because i passed on the Pens and wasn’t going to bet on the Habs as i felt like that was too much up in the air and that’s the kind of game it turned out to be, with a couple of bounces going their way they could’ve won it but i guess that’s the type of season it’s been for them.
Im really kicking myself for not considering the Hawks to have an off-night. Canes have been dynamite this year when a top team underestimates them and that really showed again. It was kind of funny though how everyone were tipping Hawks so i guess it was easy to go with the flow. But yeah in hindsight the signs were there, just the fact that you’re playing a non-playoff team (as far as the Canes roster go) from the other conference, on the road, in your last day before the break after beating your divisional rival at home should be a combination to at least give me a red flag. Im just glad the Canadiens didn’t win, because i like to do a small bet on 8+ parlays every night possible and if that Hawks game was the only one that went wrong i would’ve been pissed.
But oh yeah, there’s games tonight as well.
Tampa should be a relatively safe bet. This is probably one of the widest gaps i’ve seen teams have this year, Leafs without JvR are just so much worse than the Bolts. And even if Tampa isn’t quite fired up for this game they should still be able to pot in the needed goals. Just not feeling the upset. How about a Stamkos hat trick ? lol
I like the Kings to win as well. They’ve been beating the Avs in close games at home multiple times in recent years and i don’t see why that trend shouldn’t continue. Avs are battling the flu bug and it showed last night – E. Johnson only played 16 mins and Pickard wasn’t very sharp. Who knows how many other players have caught it by now and they had to travel to San Jose right away for this next game. Tough break for the Avs.
Now these next 2 games are very interesting.
Flames WILL be fired up tonight, they really need a win in front of their home crowd and there aren’t many better ways to do it than taking down a great team that’s on a 3 game winning streak. But make no mistake the Preds want to win too and they want payback for losing 4 in a row vs Calgary. I wouldn’t bet against the Preds in regulation but i think there’s a very very solid chance for OT. Neither team wants to give up and marginals will be small. But at the same time im really fearing a late GWG as this is just the type of game. Reminds me of the Flyers-Bruins where Philly came back from 2-0 down and then the Bruins scored in the last minute. I guess Preds ML makes sense just in case the Flames keep it tied, but if Calgary win it in OT/SO that’s going to be heartbreaking – and that’s a real possibility.
Now this last one made me laugh for a good minute just thinking about this.
Caps are a monster at home. They haven’t lost a single game in regulation in over 2 months, that’s crazy i know. But they haven’t played in 8 days and all this while knowing the real break is coming up. That has to have an affect especially when they know the Flyers are struggling and shouldn’t pose a big threat.
Flyers are ALWAYS trouble for the Caps at the Verizon Center, i don’t know what it is but that’s the way it’s been.
Fun fact: last time the Caps beat the Flyers by 2 or more goals at home were 5 years ago.
Another fun fact: In their past 9 meetings @ Verizon Center, the Caps have ONE regulation win over the Flyers.
Flyers have nothing to lose. They’ve lost 3 games in a row and 2 of them in the last minute. At this point i’d imagine they just go out and play, have fun if possible and give the Caps all they can handle. Beating the Caps in their building would be a huge morale boost for them before the break.
Upsets this big usually end in regulation but the Caps are scary good comeback team making me fear OT. And even though i posted those stats earlier the fact is the Caps right now are better than probably ever, so they could very well blow the Flyers out of the water.
So i can’t help but to laugh in disbelief about even thinking about the Flyers, but i just can’t help it. This would be one of the biggest upsets of the season (4.5 odds @ bet365) as the Caps crush the Flyers in every category going into this game.
But hey, maybe Neuvirth wants to shove it in his old teammates faces and Giroux&Voracek pot in a couple PPG goals. I mean as much as i’d like to favor Washington i can see this happening. With the Flyers you really never know.
Just my thoughts, good to have some time off of betting. I hope John Scott puts on a show in the all-star game 😀
GL !
thanks for the thoughts, always a pleasure
thanks 🙂
Great thoughts Arto and nice run last night!
I know that feeling you have about the Flyers, but I think the Caps just have too much energy stored up and unfortunately for Philly … they are going to feel it
Oh well, it was still a good bet, in the 2nd period when the Flyers were up 2-0 you could just feel the Caps coming so i cashed out my bet for +100 unit profit 😀
But yeah, their competitiveness at home is off the charts. It’s going to take a lot more than the Flyers for the Caps to lose in regulation.
Well that being said …. You completely called that outcome. Well played sir! *tips hat*
– tell me more about cashing out?
Thanks man 🙂
It’s a tool to use at bet365, by a press of a button you can “cash out” your bet. It means that like tonight for example when i had 50 units on the Flyers win and they had that 2-0 lead, live odds for the Caps are obviously good. You basically give up your initial bet for profits calculated by the system vs the live-odds – or something along those lines. It’s a good tool if you realize your bet will go wrong and have to be quick before the opponent scores. But overall making a safe bet (like double chance caps+X would’ve been better tonight if i had the time)is better because the booker downplays your odds to win. Generally it’s just to make more money from the booker’s point of view but sometimes it can be handy.
And also, cashing out when the it seems like you’re going to lose your initial bet – but actually end up winning are the worst. Basically you can end up turning your winning bet into a losing one. So in the long run it’s better just to avoid it.
Good to know. I’m not on 365 but I totally hear Graeme & Scotts advice to odd shop. Plus it means a couple more free bets right? Enjoy the break and see you on the other side!
Yeah ! You too 🙂
Damn, what a game from the Avs. After that 1st period didn’t think they’d have a chance of winning. Kings really shot themselves in the foot in this one.
What does -1,5 mean?
Its the spread. He’s tipping the Bolts at -1.5 which means they have to win by 2 goals for it to pay
thx 🙂
Chicago …. Variance it may be, but I would still make that bet and probably end up winning it 9 times out of 10. It had to be the parlay night. Ended up 2-2 myself due to squeaking the under in Ottawa, but man!
I like your tips today Graeme! I would have to completely agree and because I’m greedy I am going to parlay the two wins again w/ the -1.5.
I also like the UNDER between the kings/avs (good value)
And the UNDER between the preds/flames
Happy hunting!
Solid bets.. Going with Caps in regulation and lightning -1.5. Caps are too strong for just about any team at the moment and the leafs without JvR look just as bad as they have for the last 50 years.
Good luck.
Here’s my tip: do the opposit of whatever I do.
Having said that, I see
Leafs/Bolts O5 – prob a push, but good value in the over
Flyers/Caps O5 – Flyers have consistently scores 2-3 goals in past 10 and Caps are avg 4+ in past 10.
Preds ML – Preds are playing really well and the Flames, well, they stink.(2-6 last 8)
single parlay – Bolts ML/Kings ML/Caps-Flyers Over. pays 1:2.8
Bolts -1.5 small bet
Caps -1.5 small bet
fun bet: big salami home team -2.5
Should be interesting to see which teams come out with high compete level after the break and which teams don’t.
I know someone who is close to the San Diego Chargers and he once told me a story of partying with about 15 starters until 6 am the night before a game. They lost of course. It makes you wonder what the “party factor” is for some of these teams with younger guys.
good luck boys. I’ll miss hockey over the break. The all-star game is a joke.
Hey SanDiego,
Like your sense of humour. We all have our days when we think we know what we’re talk’n ’bout & our picks end up going the other way. I was never a big fan of the All Star game either. Love hockey but I thought the games weren’t interesting, but who knows, if I don’t get my ‘hockey fix’ I may end up watching it anyways. BTW, I’ve read other hockey blogs & some of the comments people make have nothing to do with hockey but people firing negative ‘shots’ at each other. Just like S&G, your friendly comments are nice to read. 🙂
On that note – I run an NBA Tips site. And a few years ago, we were going through a bad run. Like it was pretty bad and it didn’t seem like there was a winning night in sight.
I remember the one time my system had 4 picks. But at this point I’d completely lost faith in the system. It was probably in its 2nd year and I was thinking it was a dud.
So I took all 4 picks and then tipped the opposite of them.
And of course….the system was correct, and so I went 0-4 that night. First and only time I’ve ever did something like that. I can think back on it and laugh now but I remember just being so mad at myself the next day.
What is your NBA tips site? Sounds interesting!
http://www.NBATips.net
Phi/Wash
Caps have a positive attitude, great stats, great home record & motivated to beat a divisional opponent that’s losing; Factor in 8 days off & they have no excuse to lose; the only challenge for them is mental; they know Phil has 1/5 wins in last 5 games but all decided by 1 goal so Phil can compete & motivated; As long as they don’t take the Flyers for granted, -1.5 is not a stretch;
Tor/TB
No doubt the Bolts will be motivated when the Panthers (div
rival) gained another 2 points & just like the Caps, the Bolts have
no excuse to lose playing the Leafs on a btob & struggling to score; Winning by -1.5 should be the outcome;
BTW, from what I’ve read, Pickard is starting for the Avs;
Good luck tonight!
Hey what does -1.5 mean? Im new to betting
Means that the Lightening have to win by 2 clear goals…
http://www.nhlvihjeet.com todays picks, experts from Finland. Greets to Canada!