Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 11th, 2023
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No plays yesterday.
It was a solid, high-scoring night of hockey. Leafs and Flames had a hell of a battle, with the Leafs winning in a shootout.
Big win for the Panthers over the Canes, and the Capitals continue to plug away with an excellent result over the New Jersey Devils.
The Sharks bounce back ends at 2, as the Knights got a convincing win over them.
“Only” 12 games today. I’ll take it.
Wings vs Blue Jackets:
Wings coming in off that Habs loss, as their stumbling run continues. Jackets also very inconsistent. This is the type of game where I love the data – because from just my own perspective, I have absolutely no clue and would pass on it in a second. But when you dive into the data – sometimes there is something that stands out.
Alas, not in this case. Jackets score more but Wings create more. GA & xG the same. One of those where it’s very close and much like the Habs game, I’d maybe have the Wings as slight favourites but not where the books have them.
When you look at the 5 vs 5 metrics they swing a lot more in Red Wings favour. No bet but if the Wings can keep the penalties to a minimum, they should be enough to see off the Jackets here.
Jets vs Stars:
Jets come in on a nice 3 game run. Stars defensive metrics continue to be very poor with goaltending saving them. I presume Oettinger is in net. Jets score a lot more than they should right now so going against a top goalie could be an issue for them.
I lean on the Stars here but the odds of 1.83 are where I’d price them, and I’m a bit wary of Winnipeg being at home and the momentum despite inferior opposition. No bet.
Canadiens vs Bruins:
Habs stopped their skid with the win over the Wings. Boston now have two in a row with solid wins over the Stars and Islanders. So is there enough to back them in regulation here?
Corsi and Fenwick metrics are surprisingly practically the same. Bruins scoring more anc conceding loss but xGF/60 stats are similar. Habs xGA/60 is higher, and the SCG stats are in the Bruins favour.
So this is close. Habs GA/60 in 5 vs 5 is insanely good as is their SCGA. The home/road split is now what I have to dive into. Bostons metrics drop off a fair bit on the road ut that’s to be expected. The good news is the Habs defensive metrics are worse at home by a large margin. And it’s not just against freak teams that have high xGF etc.
Habs also have one of the worst HDCA/60 in the league, while Bruins have one of the better HDCF/60 and the 4th best HDGF/60.
God – the work I have to go through just to say Bruins in Regulation.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -121 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/11 8:58:24 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Flames:
Sens coming off the Canucks loss and they have been dismal at home lately. Flames on a B2B after the Leafs game.
My concern here is this Flames offense, which has got going quite a bit lately. So the overall metrics for say the last 10 it’s hard to use them when you look at what they are doing the last 3 games. Their xGF has always been good and now they are producing.
I’m going to pass on this one. Sens odds are too low although Flames on the B2B after last nights game I think it could be an uphill battle for them. But that hot offense and the Sens leaky goaltending isn’t a good combo.
Lightning vs Hurricanes:
Tampa coming in off that Blackhawks loss. That was such a sweat for me as my Over 2.5 goals system on Patreon had Tampa. So you get the 2 goals in just 12 minutes, then it’s a sweat until the final 2 minutes of the game. But that’s why I love sports betting – as I ended up being super invested in that game.
Hurricanes continue to struggle. Bookies have this as a flip. Canes Corsi is a juggernaut which is always the case for them. Anyway yeah looking at the metrics I can see why it’s a flip.
The Lightning offense is what stands out though with some excellent stats. Canes also on a back to back.
Man, I think I need to take the Lightning here. It’s one of those plays I don’t really like myself – but the data just pushes it towards a play. Their goalscoring ability at the moment is excellent and it should be a case of if the Canes can keep up. On the B2B with their offense struggling somewhat – I don’t think they can.
I’ll go with Lightning incl OT/SO. It’s actually tempting to bet the regulation play but the line has me a bit concerned in that I feel Tampa should be more heavily favoured and I’m missing something. So we’ll have that safety net in there.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.02 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +102 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/11 8:58:24 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Canucks:
I mean on paper as dogs, the Canucks are a bet here. Especially with the Leafs on a B2B and unable to carry any momentum.
This Leafs team scares me of course more based on what they should be doing compared to what they are doing. And this is one of those odd bets where while I look at it, and it all makes sense, but I jsust don’t love making it.
But I think I gotta go with Canucks incl OT/SO if Demko in net. Leafs goaltending and defense is torrid and as long as the Canucks keep playing the way they are, they should be able to beat them.
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: +105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds atBetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/11 8:58:24 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Sabres:
Pens with the edge here for sure. Much better corsi & fenwick, better SF%. Goals against is a bit of a weakness but Sarbes have worse xGA.
The defensive metrics are just what put me off taking the Pens in regulation here. Plus man the pens are just an odd team anyway right now and hard to back. I think they have enough to take them here but it’s a bit close.
Islanders vs Capitals:
Islanders with back to back losses and conceding a bunch of goals while doing so. Not great. Maaaybe a good spot to right the ship but man who knows with this Caps team. They have a superb xGF/60 last 10. 7th best xGF/60 overall this season (although it drops huge when you go to 5 vs 5). Islanders in 5 vs 5 have the 5th worst xGA.
If it wasn’t for the back to back, this might actually be a sneaky play on the Caps. I would have to dive into it more to confirm, and as I’m not betting them due to the B2B and it’s a big slate I’m not going to. But it’s an intriguing one.
Predators vs Coyotes:
Preds come in with back to back losses and hope their home form is better after a piss poor road trip defensively.
Metrics for this one put me off betting the Preds even if they were my first thought at a quick glance. Coyotes offensive metrics versus the Preds defensive metrics. No thanks.
Avalanche vs Blues:
Blues with 3 wins out of the last 4. I’m still fine not backing the Avs. Unlike the Kraken matchup where I said Seattle had value, I don’t think the same of the Blues. Avs should win this one. In regulation is only 1.74 though and that’s a bit low. But yeah this one I’d be surprised if Avs blow it and think it’s an okay play.
Kraken vs Oilers:
Not betting anything involving the Oilers either. Looking at the data – man, I don’t even know. Really tight one.
Kings vs Flyers:
Flyers with the big win last night as they rolled with Ersson. Kings are a team I really like this season but I’d have to take them on the handicap here. Hart was sick yesterday and didn’t play.
I’d have to take Kings -1.5. If Hart isn’t in net – I don’t hate it. Flyers have an excellent xGA/60 but their goaltending is leting them down a lot right now. I think that’s the issue for me here – If it was goaltending AND defense that was the problem for Philly, I’d be all over the Kings -1.5 assuming Hart not in net. But when you run all the defensive metrics, the Flyers are a top 10 team so to actually go with the handicap – nah.
I´m tailing tonight because I will be to drunk to make any rational decisions. Have a great weekend everyone.
Toronto -118 Half unit
I did have a long write up on Toronto and going against Vancouver because I’m expecting some regression. I’ve opted not to include it though because I have to admit the spot is not an ideal one for the Leafs. The ultimate driving force behind my pick is I believe Toronto has gotten too cheap at -118 for me to overlook. I would have included the write up if I felt all things lined up for a Toronto win and I don’t think they do. I don’t think I should be swaying people that hard towards a side while neglecting the things that may factor against the play.
Part of it though was I’m not that worried about Demko if he does start. Vancouver does play Montreal tomorrow. As of writing Vancouver hasn’t announced whether it’s Demko or DeSmith today, though I do anticipate them going with Demko here. His numbers have been great up to this point, which is a good story off the season he had last year. But looking at his game logs and the level of competition might explain some of the why.
Despite where you land on Edmonton, his two performances vs them were great and he deserves full credit for that. But he’s not the only goalie to shut down that offense and I think we’d all agree the Oilers are not performing at their peak for whatever reason. Other teams he’s faced have been, Philly, Nashville (twice), St. Louis, San Jose, and Dallas ( good team but 21st in GF/G). His one blip has been 4 against Tampa and I think this Toronto team is a closer comparison to them than any of the other teams I listed.
The second part I can still touch on is Vancouver is getting more and more expensive as they continue to win. On November 4th they were +105 Home Dogs to Dallas. Followed by -102 at Home vs Edmonton in the third matchup after beating them twice already. So +105 at Home to Dallas, to now even money on the road to Toronto feels too high to me.
I do think Dallas and Toronto are comparable, Power Rankings wise, even if most currently grade Dallas higher. If we were to flip Vancouver to on the road vs Dallas, Dallas would be about -160. Which is about 61.5 percent. Toronto is currently being priced at about 54 percent here at home. I get the back to back is part of that and while a negative, it’s unknown to me as to exactly how much. Toronto has played some hard fought games this month with extra time needed. But they also did get to sleep in their own beds so maybe all back to backs are not created equal and I can’t take Vancouver at that price off the back to back alone. You would have to believe a back to back is worth 7.5 percent in value and that feels too high.
Winnipeg +105 half unit
I would recommend only taking Winnipeg at plus money, I anticipate the line to move.
Tampa +102 half unit.
I did like Edmonton at the -110 opener. But the lines have already moved significantly towards them. So that’s a stay away for me and probably a good thing.
Also a couple teams I believe will start to get ready to go overseas for the Global Series games after today. Because you know, let’s just pack our bags and go to Sweden for two games. I don’t even fully understand why the NFL does it. NHL makes even less sense to me. Also it’s cool for the fans over there, but just a weird thing to do and I don’t understand exactly who benefits. Or if the pros outweigh the cons but maybe I’m being naïve.
Don’t know if they’ll be potentially disrupted or looking ahead. Hopefully not because I’m taking Toronto and they’re one of the teams. Teams include Detroit, Ottawa, Toronto, and Minnesota. Games start Thursday to Saturday.
I think the reason they play games abroad is greed. They try to draw attention in other countries. I think its stupid, not to mention unfair. I wouldn’t mind if they arranged games across the world in the off-season, but teams having to play home games abroad is dense. If I wanna see the Avs play live I’ll travel to see them at home. Not on neutral grounds.
They’re trying to make this happen with soccer too. Either through a European Super League, or the way they do it in La Liga now, where they play the Spanish Super Cup in Saudi Arabia. I don’t like it. If MANCHESTER City start playing some home games in Qatar, I’m gonna stop supporting them!
Imagine Erling Haaland playing next weeks game vs Liverpool in Kansas City…just because. EPL fans in England would lose their fuckin minds and rightfully so.
Also saw Flames will start Dustin Wolf vs Ottawa today. Vladar played yesterday in the shootout loss to Toronto and Markstrom is day to day.
I gotta say I’m surprised at the odds in the Oilers game. Shouldn’t the Kraken be huge favorites considering the Oilers’ performances? Or lack thereof?
My bet of the day is gonna be the Kraken in regulation!
Leafs – Canucks I gotta put money on Vancouver here. Not just because I’ll have this game on one screen, but cus of the amount of goals I’m expecting! The Leafs, although they’re not BAD, they’ve not been great either. 6 of 14 games went to OT. They have 7 wins, 4 of them from OT, and 3 of 4 home wins came from OT. Canucks on the other hand only went to OT once in 13 games! I’m gonna go with the Canucks in regulation.
Lightning – Canes. The canes are a good side, and even if they were to score 3 or even 4 tonight, I’m expecting Tampa to score more. Canes are also on a b2b. I’m gonna go with Tampa incl OT.
Avs – Blues. I’m an Avs fan to my death, and so I’m always gonna bet on them. Specially when their home odds is high enough without the handicap. On their day they’re the best team in the NHL. Strong statement, and biased, but I believe they are.
Avs in regulation
Kings – Flyers. I won a fair bit on the Penguins two days ago. The Kings lost 5 of 6 home games, and they’ve lost every first home game after an away trip, so I had them to lose incl OT, which was a great bet. I’m thinking they’ve settled a bit now, and they’ll be looking to improve on their bad home stats against the Flyers who are on a b2b.
Kings in regulation