Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 5th, 2022
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Ah, Saturdays.
Nothing like going from 2 games to 200 in the space of 24 hours.
Avs got a nice win yesterday in a fun game. Covered the handicap. And thankfully I was cautious enough not to take the Sabres yesterday, as they weren’t able to capitalize on the Canes on a back to back.
Let’s dive right into this huge Saturday slate. Bunch of early games too. Write-ups won’t be too long.
Red Wings vs Islanders:
Red Wings slight underdogs at home. Coming off the win over the Caps. Islanders on a good run with some wins over good teams as well as bad. Advanced metrics have similar defense, but Islanders better in offense. Islanders still reliant on their goaltending. Odds seem about right.
Blue Jackets vs Avalanche:
Europ Game #2. Nothing for this.
Jets vs Blackhawks:
Oh goodie. Two teams that over the years you just can’t trust. I don’t have the confidence in backing the Jets with how heavy they rely on goaltending. Jets should win but odds would make it having to take the handicap and not comfortable with that.
Oilers vs Stars:
Oilers solid favourites here. They had that big step up in opposition against the Devils and came up short. Tough loss for them there. Stars really not beaten any top teams. Corsi & Fenwick pretty close. Both high xG stats, generally goal stats except Stars GA/60 which of course is mostly Oetinnger.
Both teams high SCGF/60. I did get burnt with Skinner last time so let’s play it safe until we get more data on Skinner or he starts regressing
Over 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO if Campbell in net (sorry Jack)
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.78 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -127 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.78 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/05 11:42:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Coyotes:
Caps heavy favourites and yeah probs win. I don’t see anything glaring in the advanced metrics to suggest anything different.
Leafs vs Bruins:
I really hate the Leafs right now as they are such an unbackable team, but it’s a risk betting against them due to their offensive metrics. Boston bet is probably fine actually. They have a better xGF/60 than the Leafs and of course a much better GF/60. Bruins without Swayman for a few weeks. Ullmark will be starting here which is also good news.
Samsonov however has some decent numbers. Yeah I think I’ll pass on this one although Boston are tempting.
Lightning vs Sabres:
Lightning heavy favourites yeah seems right. The over is a possibility. Let’s see. By the goals scored, yeah it looks good. xGF as well. SCGF/60 decent for both teams, both have below average SCA/60 which is good.
Sabres rely a good bit on the high danger goals. Tampa concede a good amount of those chances, although the one concern there is HDGA/60 low. But then Detroits was good and that meant nothing.
It has the potential to go over for sure. Comrie in net which means Buffalo really have to push the offense more. I’m a bit wary of the B2B. As it feels like Sabres have to be on point and get some goals for this to go over.
The B2B is just enough to throw me off this one. But I do believe the over has merit.
Senators vs Flyers:
Sens very hevay favourites. Seems right. Flyers defensive metrics are horrific. Sens rolling with Talbot tonight so let’s maybe wait and see how he settles. He did look great on Thursday.
Hart is a beast at the moment. Not betting against him so no bet here.
Penguins vs Kraken:
Pens back on home ice where I feel we can trust them more. Kraken come in on a great run though. I’ve said it a few times – Kraken have very good defensive metrics and goaltending has been their biggest let down.
These two just played last week and Kraken ran out winners, but I just have that gut feeling it reverses here. The metrics are just all against it. Pens offensive metrics were a stinker against Buffalo and coming up against a sound Kraken team.
So my gut and experience says the Pens pull it off here. But it’s just not a mathematically sound one, especially considering the odds. I think I’ll be regretting not advising this one.
Canadiens vs Golden Knights:
Bit of a sweat for Knights backers the other day as Ottawa had a big comeback and man did Thompson have to stand strong. Goaltending has been a big factor for the Knights this season.
Habs are nothing great offensively though and it shouldn’t be as much of an issue here.
I’ve been tempted by the Habs a few times this season but this is one game where it doesn’t look like they can hang. After the way the Sens game went, have to think complacency won’t be an issue for Vegas. Knights in Regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -140 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/05 11:42:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Predators:
At a first glance, it seems like a high scoring game especially with the Canucks offense waking up. Scoring more than expected. Possible play with the goaltending. It’s hard to explain but when I look at the advanced metrics, I’m just not overwhelmingly in favour of this one going over. Like it seems borderline. The coinflip odds seem right on the money for this one.
Canucks relying a lot on high danger goals at the moment (6 against the Ducks). Preds slightly above average on HDGA/60.
Flames vs Devils:
Ugh. I was hoping the odds for this would put me off the Devils in what feels like a let down spot, but the Flames are favourites by a lot. 2.45 for the team that is one of the best in hockey at the moment.
Flames were an absolute disaster last time out – especially that first period. Devils probably starting Vanecek tonight.
Mathematically, I just feel obligated to take this one. And it sucks as my brain is screaming at me that the Flames get it going here. But it’s a bet I have to make, even if as I place it, it feels like a losing bet. Funny as it’s the complete opposite with the Penguins bet.
Devils win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.45 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.45 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +144 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.45 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/05 11:42:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sharks vs Ducks:
Completely fine passing on this one. Basic metrics suggest the over is the way to go. These two did just go over a couple of days ago in a big way.
Yeah I think you gotta back the over here with the way the goaltending is, and just hope that neither goalie steps up tonight.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.83 Odds at [Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/05 11:42:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
LA Kings vs Panthers:
Nothing for this one.
I’ve bet the Bruins 5 times so far this year hitting on 4/5, lone exception being that Sens game. However, this is the ONE TIME I’m staying far away from that bet. With yesterday’s announcement of the controversial signing, I think it creates a distraction in the B’s locker room even if only for a night and the Leaf’s take advantage of that.
Notes on the Avs and Jackets global game. We saw two Finnish players getting goals yesterday. Both Laine and Rantanens hat trick with the Avs. Now we get Korpisalo getting a start in his home country for the Jackets. Dunno what to expect out of him in his first game of the season. His career stats have always been poor with his best year probably being his first in the league. His worst being last year where he finished with more really bad starts graded then quality ones and was a -19 GSAA. I imagined a scenario where the Avs partied and celebrated with Rantanen and show up hungover to this game, but i dunno how realistic that is. Lehkonen was unable to get on the stat sheet yesterday so it’ll be interesting to see if they try and get him one today or if it continues to be the Rantenen show. Lehkonen currently +205 to score and the book i use didn’t have shots on goal props for this game as i thought that could have been a better angle to take.
Note on winnipeg at home. 2nd best GA/GP at home at 1.75. Only behind Vegas at a 1.17 continuing with the possible theories on how visiting teams treat that road trip in Sin City. winnipeg drops to 23rd at 3.33 GA/GP when on the road. Depending on strength of opponents, it does look like Winnipeg has a solid home ice advantage when it comes to allowing the opposition to score. Chicago drops about a goal per game from their home and road splits.I tend to not bet many Jets game sides because I can never get a good read on them and the high prices always seem to be built in. So when they do come up flat you do seem to notice it more.
Full game OVER: San Jose
Lean: To WIN moneyline: New Jersey and Vegas
Lean: full game OVER: Oilers
So many games I don’t like today. Very wary of bets involving Toronto, Winnipeg, Tampa. I expect Vegas to play down to Montreal’s level, so the Over is too risky. Vegas is looking very strong and is rested enough, they should win. If Arizona beats Washington today, the state should have a 24-hour laugh party. But it’s actually possible. Calgary is screwing around with their lines and that can throw them into sub-par performance for a month, and it seems to be happening. Jersey looking very good, I can’t see Calgary suddenly becoming another team in the course of a few days. Oilers playing well and Dallas has it’s #2 goalie in net, so the Oilers should smell blood and pepper that net today.
Dallas first period winner +120. Tie no bet.
Realize the potential in this not cashing against the oilers offense but Dallas has only allowed 4 first period goals on the season. In Wedgewoods four starts he has yet to concede a goal in the first period. I believe the line set is a generic line price so if the trend continues i should net some value. Dallas is second in goals for in the first period so even if they do concede it’s not inconceivable they can go into the intermission with a 2-1 score line. Current game line set at 6.5 and heavily shaded to the over adds to the list of scenarios. Dallas 7 times on the season have been outright winners of the first period. Only time in 11 games they lost a first period was to boston. This was second game in a back to back on the road coming from Ottawa. Edmonton is being listed as the -155 favorite in the tie no bet first period line. None of the data points to why the oilers should be at a 61 percent probability to win the first period. So i see value in the play.
Bruins OT/SO
Leafs usually stinks and the Bruins are so much better right now. I don´t think it will be here that they´ll lose.
Erik Karlsson 2 points. He is doing great right now.
I´m a stats nerd and the bets+analysis looks very good. This site is always a joy to read.
Good luck everyone.
Good picks