Written by Graeme on Sunday, November 5th, 2023
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A 1-0 day yesterday.
I took the LA Kings to get the job done, and they duly delivered with ease with a solid victory over the Philadelphia Flyers.
Not sure which of the Oilers or the Leafs is more hilarious – but man, what is going on with those teams. Some serious, serious isses. I think I’d rather be a Sharks fan than support one of those teams.
It was a solid day of hockey. Blackhawks got the nice win. Avs shut out again. Rangers blew that 3 goal lead which was impressive.
Two games today.
Blackhawks vs Devils
Eh – I’d like to think Devils get the W here. Would have to be in regulation. Hawks on a B2B after that big win, the Devils are not.
Honestly, this one probably ticks enough boxes to take the Devils. My only concern is with how the Blues shut them down the other night. They have had piss poor goaltending all season. The offense has been doing the job. Is that an anomaly? Or are we going to see their offense go through a cold streak?
By the metrics at least, they are scoring right around their xG so that is a good sign.
But we have seen a few times this season already a hot offense stumble one night, and then they struggle again immediately following that. At 1.76 odds, I won’t take the gamble based primarily on that. But it’s probably an okay play.
Ducks vs Knights
Would be the Knights and with them on the B2B I’ll pass. They likely get the job done but the metrics are a bit close.
So yeah nothing tonight although I do like the Devils in reg. Just that thing where I have seen the offenses crap out a few times this season and it’s putting me off.
NJ Haula UNDER 1.5 Shots +145
This may be a small sample size play but I figured it is worth a shot for me to take on a slower NHL Sunday.
When looking for goal scorers I had Haula circled as potentially netting one. His overall stats are decent enough and he tends to take the majority of his shots from the High Danger area which is what I was looking for. Also the +300 was on the higher end for goal scorers. But when looking at his game logs I noticed something. Haula has been performing much better at home than on the road.
The sample size is super small. But he’s played 3 games on the road so far this season. Zero goals and shot totals of 1, 2 and 0. In the 6 Home games he’s played, he’s scored in four of them. 5 goals on 18 shots. This may be random. Or it could be his role changes on the road. Home teams get the last change, which forces the road team to have to put their players out on the ice first. This could lead to him being forced to be used more in the defensive zone limiting his opportunities. Whereas at home the Devils can get the matchups they want and react more to potential mismatches on the ice allowing them to use Haula more in the offensive zone at times.
Where this could go wrong. It’s a very small sample. Also no Hischier and no Jack Hughes could lead to not just a different role but potentially more ice time. Chicago’s not very good and just played yesterday, where they got off to a quick start, then had to hold on in the second and third. Also the shot total is set so low it won’t take much for him to go over it.
NJ Goal Scorers
I’m going to be taking three with the hope that I can get two of them to cash. I’ve lowered the amount I’m wagering on these so if none actually land it won’t be as bad. However if I was still betting them at the half unit I would switch Mercer from +320 to score to -120 for him to record a point.
Meier +160.
Look for him at the higher end. If they are offering the +120 range it’s not worth it to me. No Hughes today should provide more opportunities and a bigger role for Meier. He’s a 35 and 40 goal scorer last two seasons. Most of that work was done with the Sharks where he was the primary scoring option. Here on the Devils they might be asking more from him then just to score. Only 2 goals thru the first 10 games. Both have come within the last five though, and he’s also starting to ramp up his shot totals. 7 vs the Blues. Without Jack he may be in his more familiar and comfortable position that he was as a Shark.
Soderblom has conceded 7 of his 15 goals against from the High Danger slot area. A poor defensive team who may lack energy may provide even more opportunities. His Save percentage is .868 His GAA is 4.19. and his Goals Saved Above Average is -4.1. 10 of Timo Meier’s 25 shots and both his goals are from the High Danger Slot area.
Mercer +320
This play is projected based on Jack Hughes being out and Mercer being moved up to center the top line of Toffoli and Meier. If that doesn’t play out I don’t like this bet. Mercer has 0 goals in 10 games with only 12 shots this year. All negatives. However he did score 27 goals last year and I think the regression has to do with a change in his role. If he plays on the top unit his role and minute time should increase. The fact he won’t be there permanently, should have him eager to take full advantage as this may be his best scenario to score. 6 of his 12 shots are from the High Danger and inside the crease close range area. The +320 isn’t factoring in the potential extra opportunities and minutes he may get vs a below average goalie I don’t think.
Dougie Hamilton +340
High volume shooter. He doesn’t get down into the danger area. But he does tend to skate into the Mid Range center ice area where 11 of his 36 shots and 3 of his 4 goals have been from. I was close to taking Luke Hughes at +550. While Luke is second in all Devil defensemen in shots behind only Hamilton, he tends to still settle on taking his shots from the point. With more games Hughes may start to go further into the zone to take a higher quality chance. With only 12 games played he may be more focused on the defensive side of things not to risk getting caught deeper in the zone. Dougie leads the entire team in shots and that volume vs a below average goalie should present an opportunity not reflected in his current price.
Bratt and Toffoli have been the biggest scorers for the Devils currently and that could potentially continue. But their prices are reflecting that making the value low enough for me to pass on them. To sum up I’ll be trying to use today to see if I can identify and land some potential props. They are all heavily NJ centric so a poor game or low goal total will lower the chance of a successful day significantly. They are also dependent on Soderblom starting for Chicago and Jack Hughes sitting out todays game for the Devils. The ones I’m going with are
Haula UNDER 1.5 shots +145
To Score
Meier +160
Mercer +320
Hamilton +340