Written by Scott on Wednesday, November 8th, 2023
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10 games yesterday and it was a disappointing 0-2 night with the tips.
I had the Canes to win in regulation against the Sabres but they needed overtime where the Canes won 3-2. Also had the Ducks to beat the Penguins. The Pens won 2-0 snapping the Ducks win streak at 6 games.
The Lightning scored 4 in the 1st chasing Allen from the net and beat the Canadiens 5-3. This was the 2nd day in a row where they score 4 in the 1st and chase the goalie. The Rangers were up 5-0 after the 2nd and held on for the 5-3 win against the Wings.
The Avs beat the banged up Devils 6-3. The Sharks won their first game when they beat the Flyers 2-1 snapping their NHL record tying 11 game losing streak to start the season.
A slower night for us with only 3 games.
Senators vs Leafs Betting Tips:
These are usually great games in the Battle of Ontario.
The Sens have lost their last 2 games and find themselves in 8th in the Atlantic. One positive for them is they are ranked 4th in GPG with 3.8.
The Leafs are in 4th in the Atlantic but haven’t gotten the best results of late going 1-2-2 over last 5. 3 of their last 5 games needed extra time. They are ranked 10th in GPG with 3.42
This is the first meeting of these teams this season. Their last 3 games between them saw the Leafs win 2 of them and 2 of them went over too.
Normally when these teams play each other you can basically ignore the stats and let the history between these clubs give us a good game.
The over/under is 7 which has me a little worried as the most recent game between these teams so the Leafs win 3-0.
I would think that the Leafs would win this after coming back to win against the Lightning after being down by 3. But they have played 12 games this season and 5 needed extra time and we would have to take them in regulation.
Although the metrics don’t really back this play, I’m going to go with the over. 7 is high but both teams can score and theirs a lot of history between them. This is more of a gut play but I’m going with it.
Over 7 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Rest of Canada: 2.09 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +109 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.09 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/08 7:55:25 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Capitals Betting Tips:
Either team is giving me a reason to back them. They have had so-so results up to this point.
The Panthers are 6-4-1 and on the road here where they have gone 2-3-1. They are ranked 22nd in goals and 3rd in shots. So the shots are there but they can’t bury the goals.
The Caps are 5-4-1 and at home they are 4-3. They are ranked 31st in the league in GPG with 1.90.
I have no idea who wins here. Both teams are underperfoming and in desperate need of points.
Kings vs Knights Betting Tips:
The Kings are on a 3 game win streak. They are 7-2-2 and in 3rd place in the Pacific. They are ranked 2nd in GPG with 4.27, 9th in shots, 9th in GAPG and 3rd in SOGA.
The Knights just took their first regulation loss of the season. They are an incredible 11-1-1 and in 1st place in the Pacific. They are ranked 5th in GPG, 25th in shots, 4th in GAPG and 13th in SOGA.
They played once this season and the Knights won that one 4-3 in a shootout.
This should be a great game. The Kings are on a win streak so they will want to beat the best team in the league to give them even more momentum going forward. The Knights just took their first loss in regulation so they’ll be anxious to get back out there and into the win column.
The Knights have been great at home going 7-0-1 but the Kings have been just as impressive on the road going 6-0.
As we saw, the first game between these teams was a close one and needed a shootout to be determined. I expect this one to be close as well.
No bets today.
Leafs games I usually avoid (for years now) because of their unpredictability. Ottawa’s had 3 days off so should put up quite a fight. I agree with the idea of the Over, but at what cutoff point, not sure. 7 goals is in the danger area I figure.
Florida hasn’t really clicked yet, so picking the Florida moneyline I won’t go for yet, even though Washington is weak. Kings and Knights smells of some kind of “Over”, but they both have good defense and are fast enough to shut each other’s plays down, so it could go 3-2 or 7-5 either way, so very wary of that one.
REVIEW:
By the way, lost yesterday on the San Jose game, and yet I still feel it was the right bet on the moneyline and -1.5. Game results show Philly behaved like complete idiots, so bad that for betting purposes I’m red-flagging them going forward; they took 9 penalties including fighting, misconducts, roughing, interference and tripping. San Jose took 8 penalties, seemingly a match for the bad behavior, so players sometimes found themselves teamed up for childish behavior, and Philly gave in to that nonsense (was it a San Jose tactic?). San Jose was outshot by a big margin (40 to 22). Just a stupid experience. I suspected that after being beat 10-1 twice, San Jose players would at some point go completely animal and win, but based on uninhibited energy and skill, and that’s not what happened. Philly gave the game away. Funny enough, only 1 of the 3 goals was a powerplay goal.
LESSON: penalty behavior of teams is extremely important. I knew that, but didn’t figure Philly would be a team of undisciplined losers. Now I know they’re vulnerable. San Jose still deserves to remain in the basement. San Jose may have also showed total lack of discipline yesterday and won by pure chance in a situation of chaos. If they want to rely on that as a tactic, their games are going to be pathetic and wins still rare.
Yeah I was watching that Philly game and they were a mess. Weren’t really creating good chances – it almost felt like after the Sharks last results, they felt under pressure to also score 10 lol. I also don’t know if that early goal added that pressure or what but yeah really disappointing one from them.
Senators-Leafs screams goals.
I’m tailing Scott
To Score
Toronto
Tavares +140
Jarnkrok +330
Klingberg +650
Ottawa
Tkachuk +175
Stutzle +175
Batherson +330
Liked Tavares and Tkachuk the most. Stutzle very close behind Tkachuk. Tkachuk is shooting at 19 percent so that is due to regress at some point. 5 goals on 15 shots from the High Danger slot and crease. I’m anticipating Woll to start for Toronto and if so, 12 of his 15 goals against have come from this area. Tkachuk has been able to get to this area the most.
Stutzle on the other side of the coin is over due. Last 7 games without a goal, but 8 assists shows he’s still getting involved and not completely going cold. Would like him to shoot with more consistency as he tends to disappear from time to time. In his 4th year and he’s increased his goal totals from 12 to 22 to 39. Just 2 goals through his first 10 games this season. 6.3 shooting percent currently off last years 17.1 and a 13.7% in his early career.
Thought about just playing Tavares and Tkachuk instead of the high volume here. But I’m keeping the amount I wager low. So I’m just trying to monitor whether it’s better to try and isolate a player or two and live with the results or go higher volume. There will be times where this strikes out completely so keep expectations low and prepare for the worst. I’m projecting Woll and Korpisalo as the starters when I landed on these so hopefully that’s who they go with.
If Forsberg starts I’d swap out Klingberg and Jarnkrok for Knies and if you want Matthews though he’s priced at -120. To score 2+ is priced at +500 so that’s dropping lower as well. And he’s scored in three straight the last two games being a hat trick and 2 vs Tampa. So kind of a tough ask. Knies at +300 or higher is also a low one because he’s still not getting many minutes and doesn’t take many shots yet at all. But when he does they are quality shots from high success areas. Scored in last game out. Took only 1 shot in the previous 4 games combined. The goal might keep him quiet for awhile or give him confidence and more opportunities.
Also Vegas -125 half unit.
Vegas at -125 or better is slight value to me. Kings could easily win but at -125 or lower, they are saying these are equal teams and I personally have the Knights ranked higher.