Written by Graeme on Thursday, November 9th, 2023
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The Battle of Ontario went over with ease which was nice to see. Even nicer that the winners were the Sens by quite the margin.
My god I enjoy when the Leafs lose.
Panthers vs Capitals was quite the scrappy game, and the Kings got a nice and easy win over the Knights. I called that one on my Patreon as a pure metrics play, so was nice to see it come in that simple.
Let’s get into Thursday tips.
Lightning vs Blackhawks:
Tampa come in fresh off their Eastern Canada trip where there were some mental games. Lot of factors point to the over here in the metrics although I’d prefer to see higher CF & FF on Tampas end. The biggest concern is the Blackhawks who overall this season have struggled to score, and also aren’t creating chances.
This is one where by the metrics, it looks like a 4-2 Tampa kind of game. Regulation play is barely above our threshold.
I like Lightning in regulation here, but I’m concerned with how erratic their last few games are. After a trip like that, it could be a let-down spot. If they were 1.80 I’d take them in regulation, but 1.71 is a bit too low for me.
Rangers vs Wild:
We just saw these two play in a banger on the 4th. Wild came out on top there. I mentioned that the Wilds scoring ability was concerning in that one and they showed it again.
I really want to play the Wild here but the metrics just aren’t there for me to do so. They’ve proven they can get past Quick, and he may not be in net tonight anyway.
The Wilds road form – hell all their form – is so inconsistent. This is one where I think I gotta bet the Wild, but the metrics and just general form mean I can’t advise it. The data just isn’t there to back it up.
Red Wings vs Canadiens:
Corsi and Fenwick have these teams very close. Shots stats the same. Wings scoring more but also scoring more than they should, and vise versa for Habs. Both teams conceding at similar rates etc. Maaaan it is hard to separate these teams. I’d give the edge to the Wings, but not as high as the bookies have it.
But when you look at the Habs recent results they’re just not really backable. If the over was 6 I’d consider it maybe but the SCG stats keep me well away from 6.5.
Bruins vs Islanders:
Bruins back on the winning track with the tight one over the Stars. Metrics go the way of the Bruins, but maaaan i is tight in spots. Bruins are scoring as expected. Islanders scoring a fair bit less than they should be but also should be conceding more. Goaltending has helped them a ton.
Varlamov did get his clock cleaned by the Wild but he’s still a factor as they are a hot offense.
Bruins in Regulation if Varlamov NOT in net
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bovada
USA: 2.16 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/09 8:16:17 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Canucks:
Sens on a B2B after that Leafs win. Their last B2B they beat Tampa 5-2 on second lef after a FLyers win so could be a momentum carrying team.
Canucks continue to impress results wise.
This is quite an easy pass for me as really the only difference between these teams is the Canucks goaltending. Their xGA/60 is worse than the Sens as is their FA and SA. If the Sens offense is hot, it could be a big night for Ottawa.
I assume Demko in net but hey a conditional play if he isnt.
Over 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO if Demko NOT in net
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/09 8:16:17 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jackets vs Stars:
Both teams are bleh. Underperforming offenses. Stars goaltending been a big factor. Stars probably get the W but on the road meh. Not one I’m too invested in betting.
Blues vs Coyotes:
Blues last game was a big 5-2 loss to the Jets at home. Now they host the Coyotes who are coming off that Kraken win. That game was interesting as I dfid some analysis on it and on paper, it was a confident win for the Coyotes. But when you start to use weighted metrics (which is a bit of guesswork this early) it was a lot closer. Of course I didn’t look at the weighted metrics until I had backed the Coyotes, so got a bit fortunate there.
Anyway this game – Coyotes have the easy edge in the metrics. Like ticks every single checkbox. Buuuut you look at those schedules, and the Blues have had the trickier games by far. And at 1.95, Coyotes are a pass.
Jets vs Predators:
Jets at home after a few road games where they host Nashville. The Preds just lost to the Flames 4-2. I was a bit surprised at that considering some of the Preds metrics. This looks quite close and nothing is jumping out.
Avalanche vs Kraken:
Avs are not a team I am ready to back at all when you look at the Knights, Sabres and Penguins results. By the metrics I’d give them the edge, but it’s not overwhelming. Kraken probably have value, but it’s one of those value bets where you would go into it expecting to lose. No play here.
Sharks vs Oilers:
Sharks got the win over the Flyers in an odd game. Now they host the horrible Edmonton Oilers. Two pitiful offenses when it comes to scoring, and I’m happy to pass on this one.
LA Kings vs Penguins:
Not sur why I wrote LA there. Not like it’s going to be the Sacramento Kings taking on the Penguins or something.
Anyway with the Kings big result last night plus a B2B I’m fine to pass. Especially assuming we get Copley tonight.
Couple leans but can’t quite get there on any of them. Wanted to take Ottawa as a home dog vs. DeSmith. Detroit vs Primeau. I think I’ll have a two team goal total parlay with Detroit in it instead. The last was I wanted to go with the Kings vs Hellberg. But Penguins have some sneaky decent metrics so it was just enough to keep me off. Check the starting goaltenders today before making any plays. Rangers with Domingue, Avs with Prosvetov.
Two Team Parlay -182.
Detroit OVER 2.5 Team total goals (-310)
and
Edmonton OVER 2.5 team total goals (-575)
If there’s any game the Oilers SHOULD score in, it should be this one. But are they gonna do it? Of their 11 games so far they have 6 under 2.5. 2 of 5 away games over 2.5. Sharks are so weird as well. Concede 10 goals in 2 games in a row, then they go and concede just 1. I think those 20 goals against are too fresh in their mind, so they’ll be focusing a lot on their defense.
Detroit I agree with. Exciting team, fun to watch them play. Even more so when you got money on them 😀
I would agree the Oilers are not a lock to score here and nothing with them would surprise me. San Jose full effort to get that first win over Philly. Blackwood just gets lit up with shots night after night. In his game logs he’s yet to have two solid performances in a row and I can’t really blame him because of how poor the team in front of him is. Also The Oilers expected goals for and other 5 on 5 numbers combined were too dominant for me to ignore. While the Oilers do deserve to get beat up for their season so far off the expectations, I do think they are putting up some metrics that indicate a bounce at least on the Offensive side of things. Defense and goaltending on the hand I have less faith in.
This bet should at least hold me over until Friday and keep me from making any foolish bets which I tend to do from time to time.
For me, the Coyotes and Stars in regulation @ 2.50 and 1.80 respectively were the best plays.
Blues have been really slow which shows in the metrics, I mean they’re a veteran team but after missing the playoffs you would’ve expected a bit more jump this season. Most games the best they can do is go toe-toe-toe for a period or two but that’s it. Coyotes have been the quicker team and been scoring lots of goals. Already beat the blues 6-2 in this building and I think that’s a positive in a game where they’re trying to end this win one lose one trend. Probably a close game as the Blues try to bounce back and get revenge, but yeah I like the value in Arizona.
Dallas dropped a couple in a row now but they were coming against the Bruins. They’ve been in these spots before and as a veteran team I’d expect a mature effort to avoid a 3-game slide. Obviously the Jackets are nowhere near the Bruins defensively so I would expect carryover from last game and the floodgates to open a bit for the Stars, especially since they just put up 5 on Columbus not too long ago. Blue Jackets offense very sporadic as they don’t have any top guys leading the charge right now. Dallas is a better defensive team and they have the top line that can make a difference, so I like the matchup.
Today I’m going with:
Bruins incl OT/SO
Wings in regulation (I think your personal bias is clouding your judgement a tiny bit here, Graeme. Or personal hope, at least 😉
Lightning in regulation
Stars in regulation
Avs in regulation
Canucks in regulation. Canucks has only one game that went to OT of their 12, 9 wins. Sens got no OT games, lost 6 of 11, lost 4 home games in a row. They can make it 5.
I’m gonna do a 5-fold system and a 6 game parlay on these for cheap. Entertainment value when there’s a lot of games on 🙂
Just want to note that personal bias never affects my picks at all. I may have feelings in regards to teams outside of just the stats – for example a lack of confidence in certain teams etc – but no personal bias ever affects it.
You’re way more reasonable than me then, mate! I tend to go with the teams I “like more” sometimes. I should start analyzing deeper and avoid the favoritism!
Besides, you did right not going with the Wings there too!
Live wager Edmonton down 2-1 after two periods at +110…smart value or cry for help? Feel free to post any jokes at my expense…
well that didn’t take long lesson learned.
Haha, yeah, my condolences buddy!