Written by Graeme on Sunday, October 29th, 2023
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A 1-2 day yesterday.
Habs/Jets went over in a banger of a game.
Took the underdog Blue Jackets to win. They had plenty of chances in a very close game, but could not get past Varlamov who had an excellent game.
Had the Kings to win over the Knights. They were the better side, and racked up a very impressive 5.48xG in that one. Alas, they lost in a shootout.
We didn’t have the Bruins/Wings over due to Swayman being in net and that was the right call as the Wings couldn’t get past him, and honestly they struggled to create many chances. A bit lucky there as I don’t think they would have scored the goals if Swayman wasn’t in net.
Let’s get onto todays games. With Scott taking over at the start of the season, I’ll be covering tips from now until next Monday.
Sabres vs Avalanche:
Sabres with some real inconsistency lately. Going up against the Avs who just got thumped by Pittsburgh.
You look at the results of these teams and the over might look appealing. But not sure that’s the case. Looking at the metrics I feel good about the Avs scoring, but not so much the Sabres.
I’m a bit wary of the Avs with that performance against the Pens. You never know how a team is going to react.
Looking at what I can bet related to that I’m going with Avs win the Race to 3 Goals
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/29 11:27:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Wild:
Devils big favourites here. They have been a bit all over the place this season although some banger games. Minnesota pretty much ditto.
Neither team on a B2B which is nice. Sundays are often rotten for that would love to see more of that. By the metrics should the Devils be that heavy favourites? Maaaaybe. It’s a lot more based on their offensive metrics and how the Wild are leaking goals.
This one ticks most of the boxes for going over. Would like to see the Wilds SCGF/60 slightly higher. It’s similar to the Jets/Habs over yesterday – a pretty paint by the numbers pick when you go by the data, and I’m not seeing anything really off-putting.
Over 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction (SIA) - Non-Ontario bet $10 get $200
USA: -119 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2023/10/29 11:27:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Sharks:
Caps monster favourites but they are not a team I feel good about backing at the moment. I said the other day that the Wild defense looked like a great one for the Caps if their offense was going to get going – but they really didn’t. Similar here. Just don’t have the faith in this Caps offense ATM.
Oilers vs Flames:
Outdoor game, happy to avoid. Plus with these two teams, I’m extra happy to avoid. The only winning here is if it hits -60 degrees and they have to cancel the game.
Buffalo +150 half unit.
I understand I’m getting Luukkonen in goal for Buffalo. But I still believe this line has climbed too high.
Two Team Parlay. +111
San Jose Sharks UNDER team total 3.5 (-370)
and
Calgary Flames OVER team total 2.5 (-150)
Sharks have scored 3 goals just once this season and 0 in their last two. Under 4 seems like a safe bet here on the road.
With the Flames vs Oilers, I wanted to attack this game a couple different ways. First I thought about taking whichever team is the underdog which would be the Flames currently around +135. I also thought about the over 6.5 at -105. McDavid looking like he will play, has me not eager to bet the Flames, as aside from the obvious talent and power play boost, it can be an extra bit of momentum for the Oilers to have him back. I still might take the over 6.5 at half a unit, but didn’t want to have too many similar bets all tied together, and I’ll be taking a McDavid to score prop. So I’m not really eager to make 3 bets on this game. Outdoor games can get a little funny too so a bit of an unknown on how that plays.
Edmonton McDavid to score +110. Half Unit.
If McDavid doesn’t play no big deal. He is currently a Game Time Decision who was a full participant in Saturday’s practice. Worse case scenario is he rushed back because he didn’t wanna miss the Outdoor game and isn’t fully ready or doesn’t play his full amount of minutes. The plus money makes this worth a half unit play for me.
Another for fun bet I wanted to try something different.
Same game parlay
San Jose Hertl and Washington Backstrom both to score +1200
Then two solo bets
Washington Oshie to score +205
SJ Ferraro to score +1400
will prolly crash and burn but I had to try it.